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⛏️ MicroBT Whatsminer M30s 88 Th/s Miner Bros ...
So I'm getting an RTX 3080 from Nvidia and that has a hashrate of 75 MH/s but on eBay how come I can buy a USB Bitcoin Miner ( GekkoScience Newpac USB Bitcoin Miner ) for £55 and get 28 GH/s which equates to £450 per day in terms of etherium currency (at the current price). I'm pretty sure this is too good to be true? Am I right? There are several others similar to this such as renting a 250 TH/s mining setup for 24 hours for only £40 but with the 250 TH/s you could make £4.6k per day. I am very confused...
Multi apartment clustered cryptocurrency mining rig
So you’ve probably just heard all your classes are online. And now you’re trying to sublet your apartment but no one’s gonna take it. So now you’re gonna be paying at least $1000/month for an empty apartment. I have a proposal that can reduce that cost and possibly turn a profit. Firstly, we have a very high risk credit market on our hands. The Federal Reserve has been pumping money into the economy and at some point the US dollar will have to inflate while growth stagnates (aka stagflation). During stagflationary periods in the past the price of non-fiat currencies like gold or silver has skyrocketed. Recently cryptocurrencies have emerged with the same general economic properties of such commodities. Therefore we may see an increase in their values as the Fed keeps pumping more money into the economy. As of now in order to generate enough money per month to pay off rent in South Campus Commons, each apartment would need a Bitcoin rig capable of generating ~2200 TH/s (since you don’t pay for electricity). For the Varsity and View this might have to be higher considering the cost of electricity. This is definitely possible with new ASIC chips that are solely built for the purpose of running Bitcoin hashing algorithms. For other cryptocurrencies (Ethereum, Litecoin, Dogecoin), these rates may be different. But like any good portfolio manager, diversifying our investments will ensure we have a profitable outcome. If enough students come together to construct a Bitcoin mining rig in their apartments we could essentially create a multi apartment clustered miner to be able to generate Bitcoin. On top of that, because campus server resources will be diminished due to online classes, we can in turn utilize that computing power to help mine such cryptocurrencies. As a result we won’t have to find people to sublet our apartments to and won’t have to worry about the financial undertakings associated with it. TL;DR: Corona collectively fucked everyone in the ass and we should build a massive Bitcoin rig to pay off our rent.
http://garbage2gucci.com/2020/08/03/mara-is-one-hot-crypto-ticke Another penny stock ticker that’s worth noting and keeping on your watchlist is $MARA. The momentum, traction, and attention that this company has been getting are certainly something investors shouldn’t neglect. Before we move on a little further into the market summary, here’s a brief summary of Marathon Patent Group, Inc. for investors who have never heard of it. Brief Summary: Marathon Patent Group, Inc. / $MARA To keep it short, Marathon Patent Group, Inc. is a digital asset company that focuses on mining cryptocurrencies. According to numerous cryptocurrency believers, this type of currency will be the future. What do you think? Marathon Patent Group’s focus on the blockchain has intrigued many cryptocurrency investors. At the moment, the company is currently operating a mining facility in Quebec. Whether cryptocurrencies will be the future or not, the topic has been a debate since the beginning and introduction of Bitcoin. Let’s go over the current market summary of $MARA. Marathon Patent Group, Inc. Price, Market Cap, And Volume https://preview.redd.it/e67n1z27mse51.png?width=431&format=png&auto=webp&s=45f038c5ac302410fb3c78fdb14c0d47d1f16b9e At the moment, the price of $MARA is $1.04 after the market closed on Friday. When comparing the current volume to the average volume, the current volume outweighs the average. The average volume of $MARA is 5,718,766 while Friday’s market movement displays a volume of 24,926,863 shares. That’s definitely incredible. Another attractive market stats about $MARA is that the market cap is only at $22.652 million. We definitely still have a lot of room to move up. According to Yahoo Finance, its algorithm detected a bullish signal expecting a positive price movement within the next several weeks. With all that aside, let’s hear about Marathon Patent Group’s latest news and reports. Marathon Patent Group: Latest News May 19th, 2020: Published by GlobeNewswire, it was reported that Marathon Patent Group made an additional purchase of 500 the latest generation of Bitmain S19 Pro Miners. To give you additional stats and info about this purchase, the company will be able to:
Produce 110 TH/s
Generate 56 PH/s
Bringing Marathon Patent Group a total of 185 PH/s
The amount paid comes out to $1,258,500 and expecting the units by the end of August. June 3rd, 2020: Published by GlobeNewswire, the article mentioned that Marathon Patent Group installed 700 MS30S+ ASIC miners as well as being debt-free. Now that’s two good news in one. Mentioned in the press release, Marathon Patent Group’s long-term debt is now at zero. June 11th, 2020: Published by GlobeNewswire, it was announced that Marathon Patent Group made another purchase of 500 more of the latest version of S19 Pro ASIC miners. This purchase cost $1,190,000 and they’re expecting to receive these units by the end of September. Now – the good news is that Marathon Patent Group will have 500 units installed in August and another 500 units in September. Because of this, investors can expect higher earning coming from the company. As of right now, it’s worth keeping $MARA on your watchlist to see how the price will move within the next couple of months. Note: For this $MARA guide, please note that this post isn’t to help investors make a financial decision. It’s advised that readers should do their own due diligence. ————————————————————————————————————————– If you’re interested in furthering this discussion,you’re Invited to my free Telegram Stocks Talk Chatroom.In my freeTelegram Stocks Chatroom, we talk about speculative stocks every day during market hours. My chatroom is for all levels of experience and you are welcome to just spend a session or two with us and see if we can be another useful resource toward helping you succeed.Here’s the LINK
An In-Depth Guide to: How do I Fix my Ledger Nano’s Stuck Ethereum Transaction?!?!?! (It’s Been Stuck for Weeks and NOTHING Traditional has Worked!!!!) As Well as: How Do I Choose My Nonce??? I’ve Tried MetaMask, MEW/MyEtherWallet, and Others, but Nothing is Working Correctly!!! I’m Dying by Stress!
So, if you were like me 1-2 months ago, you’ve probably already gone through 2,or 3, ...or 40 articles and guides that probably say something like: “YeP, eVeRy EtHeReUm UsEr WiLl EvEnTuAlLy HaVe ThE LoW-gAs ExPeRiEnCe, YoU’rE nOt AlOnE! DoN’t FrEaK OuT tHoUgH; ThErE iS a WaY tO fIx It!” Chances are, every time you read another useless article, you want to kill the nearest inanimate object, even though it was never alive in the first place. Nonetheless, you’re gonna kill it as much as it can be killed, holding nothing back; or, you’re just plotting to and slowly getting closer to executing the plan (and the object) every time you are insulted once again. However, if you have the ability to download software (MyCryptoWallet) on a PC, it should be safe to relax now. I think you’ve finally found some good news, because I am 99.99...% sure this will work for the issue that so many people are having at this time, around the end of the month of May, year 2020. More and more people are likely to be having this issue soon, since Ethereum's gas prices have been insanely high lately as well as having 300% price changes in a matter of minutes; Etherscan’s Gas tracker is nearly uselessly-inaccurate at this time. I've heard that there's a congestion attack; that was said a week ago, and it appears to be ongoing... (I can't think of any other suspect besides Justin Sun to blame it on... it must be incredibly expensive to overload the blockchain for this long... I may be wrong though...)
Let’s begin For myself, I was trying to send an ERC20 token when this dreadful issue attacked. Specifically, the token was either BSOV or GRT; I sent them 1 after the other and the first succeeded, and the second one took over a week. (They’re both great tokens in my opinion and deserve much more attention than they’ve been getting. BSOV is nearing its 1 year anniversary as I write this, and GRT is still in its 90 day community-development progress test, so of course I'm gonna take this opportunity to "shill" them; they are great tokens with great communities). I was able to finally fix it, after a week of mental agony (also the txn finally processed 1-2 hours before I found the solution, robbing me of the gratitude of fixing it myself... (╯‵□′)╯︵┻━┻ ...but now I guess I can hopefully save some of you the headaches that I endured... ) I’m providing the ability to do the same, in a step by step guide. Why did I go through all of this trouble? I'd fault the fact that I have ADHD and autism, which in my case can multiply each other’s intensity and cause me to “hyper-focus” on things, much much more than most with the same qualities, intentionally or not. Adderall is supposed to give me a bit of control over it, but except for in a very-generalized way, it’s still 90% up to chance and my default-capabilities to allow me control over my attention with self-willpower. But also Karma and Moons pls... ʘ‿ʘ
In MyCrypto, (I'm using the Windows 10 app, version 1.7.10) you will open to a screen that says "How would you like to access your wallet?". Choose Ledger, of course. (Unless your here for some non-ledger issue? Idk why you would be but ok.)
On the next screen (having your nano already plugged in, unlocked, and opened into the Ethereum app) click "Connect to Ledger Wallet"
A screen overlay should appear, titled: "Select an Address". Here is where it may get confusing for some users. Refer to "AAA" below to know how to find your account. (Geez, sorry lol that was a huge amount of info for a reddit reply; I might've over-elaborated a little bit too much. but hey it's valuable information nonetheless!)
After escaping the "AAA" section, you'll have accessed your account with MyCrypto. Awesome! To find your ERC20 tokens, (slight evil-laughter is heard from an unidentifiable origin somewhere in the back of your mind) go to "AAB".
(You may have decided to find the token(s) on your own, rather than daring to submit to my help again; if so, you may pity those who chose the other path... ~~(￣▽￣)~~) Now, once you've added your token, you should revert your attention to the account's transfer fill-out form!
I'll combine the steps you probably understood on your own, already. Put in the address that your stuck transaction is still trying to send currency to. If an ERC20 token is involved, use the drop-down menu to change "ETH" to the token in trouble. Input your amount into the box labeled... wait for it... "Amount". Click on "+Advanced".
Refer to Etherscan.com for the data you will need. Find the page for your "transaction(txn) hash/address" from the transaction history on the wallet/Ethereum-manager you used to send from. If that is unavailable, put your public address that your txn was sent from into the search tool and go to its info page; you should be able to find the pending txn there. Look to open the "more details" option to find the transaction's "Nonce" number.
Put the nonce in the "Nonce" box on MyCrypto; you will contest the pending txn with a new txn that offers larger gas fees, by using the same nonce. If (but most likely "When") the new transaction is processed first, for being more miner-beneficial, the nonce will then be completed, and the old transaction will be dropped because it requests an invalid, now-outdated nonce. Your account will soon be usable!
Go to the Gas Tracker, and it may or may not provide an informative reading. Choose whatever amount you think is best, but choose wisely; if you're too stingy it may get stuck again, and you'd need to pay another txn's gas to attempt another txn-fix.
At the time I write this, I'd recommend 50-100 gwei; to repeat myself, gas requirements are insane right now. To be safe, make the gas limit a little higher than MCW's automatic calculation, you may need to undo the check-mark for "Automatically Calculate Gas Limit".
Press "Send Transaction"!!!
You will need to validate the action through your nano. It will have you validate three different things if you are moving an ERC20 Token. It's a good idea to verify accuracy, as always.
Well, I hope this worked for you! If not, you can let me know in a reply and I'll try to figure it out with you. I like making these in-depth educational posts, so if you appreciate it please let me know; I'll probably make more posts like this in the future! ( Surely this is at least far better than Ledger's "Support" article where they basically just tell you "Yeah, we haven't bothered to make a way to manually select nonces. I guess we might try to make that available for Bitcoin accounts at some point in the future; who knows? lol"... that's not infuriating at all, right?)
AAA: Before I tell you how to find your address, I will first make it clear, within the italicized text, exactly which address you are looking for, if you are not already sure: You may also skip the text written in italics if your issue does not include an ERC20 token, if you wish. Ledger Live can confuse some users with its interface. On LL, to manage an ERC20 token, you first must go to your Ethereum account and add the token. When you then click on the added token under "Tokens" below the graph chart for your account's ETH amount over time, the screen will then open a new screen, that looks just the same, except focused on the specific ERC20 token. To confuse users further, there is then an option to "Star account", which then add the ETH icon with the ERC20 token's first letter or symbol overlapping, onto the easy access sidebar, as if it was another account of similar independency to the ETH account it was added to. This improperly displays the two "accounts" relation to each other. Your ERC20 holdings (at least for any and all ERC20 that I know of) are "held" in the exact-same address as the Ethereum address it was added to, which also "holds" any Ether you've added to it. You send both Ether (ETH) and any ERC20 Tokens to and from only Ethereum addresses of equivalent capabilities, in both qualities and quantities. In all basic terms and uses, they are the same. So, to know what the problematic account's address is, find the address of the Ethereum account it was added to in Ledger Live. Now, to find your address on MyCrypto, the most reliable way to find it, that I am aware of, is this: Open Ledger Live. Go to the screen of your Ethereum address (again, this is the one that you added your ERC20 token, if applicable. If you're not dealing with an ERC20 token, you may ignore everything I've put in Italics). Click on "Edit account"; this is the icon next to the star that may look like a hex-wrench tool. On the new screen-overlay, you will see "> ADVANCED LOGS". Click on the ">" and it will point down while revealing a drop-down with some data that you may or may not recognize/understand. Likely to be found indented and in the middle-ish area, you will see this line, or something hopefully similar: "freshAddressPath": "44'/60'/X'/0/0", The "X" will probably be the only thing that changes, and the actual data will have a number in its place; it will not be a letter. Let's now put that line to use in MyCrypto: Take the 44'/60'/X'/0/0 , and make sure you DO NOT copy the quotation marks, or that comma at the end either. You can do this before or after copying and/or pasting, but drop the second "/0" at the end; it was not necessary in my case, I expect that you won't need it either, and will probably just make MyCrypto see it as an invalid input. Okay, now go back to the "Select an Address" screen-overlay in MyCrypto. Next to "Addresses", click on the box on the right, and you should be shown a list of options to select from in a drop-down menu. Scroll all the way down, and you should find the "Custom" option at the very bottom. Select it. A new box will appear; probably directly to the right of the now-shortened box that now displays the "Custom" option that you just selected. This box will offer an interface for typed input. ...yep... once again, believe it or not, you should click it. Type " m/ ", no spaces before or after. Type in or paste the data we retrieved from ledger live. The box should now hold this: m/44'/60'/X'/0 Again, X should be a number. In fact, that number is probably equal to the number of Ethereum (not including any ERC20 wannabe) accounts that you've made on Ledger Live before making the one we're working on right now! (1st Eth. Acc. would have: X = 0, 2nd: X = 1, 3rd: X = 2, ...) Make sure you've included every apostrophe ( ' ), and solidus ( / ); there is NO APOSTROPHE for the "m" at the start and the "/0" at the end! If you press the enter key or click on the check-mark to the right of where you typed, the appropriate addresses will be generated, and the address you created through Ledger Live should be the first one on the list! Select your address and press "Unlock", and you are now accessing your account through the MyCrypto app's interface!
AAB: In order to access your ERC20 token, you will need to add them first. You may have to scroll down, but on the right-side of your unlocked account screen, you'll see a box with "Token Balances" as its header. Click "Scan for tokens". This may take a short bit of time, and when it's done it may or may not display your ERC20 token. If it worked, you can head on back to the main part. If you got the result I did, it won't display your token, or, if our result was exactly the same, it won't display any at all. However, you should now have the "Add Custom Token" option available, so see where that takes you. You should discover four boxes, specified in order (Address/ Decimals / Token_Symbol / Balance). You may only need to fill in the "Address" box, but if you need to fill others, you'll find those with the token's address; here's 2 ways to find it, if you don't already know. Method I: Since you've probably already been managing your token with Ledger Live, you can go to the LL screen of your "account" for that token; Right next to the account's icon, and directly above the name, you'll see: Contract: 0x??????...???????? Yes, go on; click it. You'll find the token's page on Etherscan; this was just a shortcut to the same place that both of the two previously referenced methods lead to. Skip to method... III? Method II: Go toEtherscan.com, or a similar Ethereum-blockchain-monitoring website, if you have a different preference. Search for the name of your token, and you should be able to see it as a search result. Activate your search manually of by selecting search option. Continue on with Method III. Method III (I&II; what makes you think there was a third method? I said 2!): At this point, you should find the "contract address" somewhere on the screen. This is the identity of the creature that breathes life into the token, allowing it to exist within the world of Ethereum. Steal it, and tell MyCrypto that you've left some of "your" tokens in the address of your ledger's Ethereum account. MyCrypto will trust and believe you without any concern or doubt, just by putting "your" contract address in the box for "Address"; it's almost too easy! Well whaddya know, this one isn't actually too long! Don't tell anyone who may have taken a little longer whilst finding out how to do it themselves, though. There's value in trying to do something on your own, at least at first, so I'll let them think they made the right choice (¬‿¬). But take this star for humbling yourself enough to seek further help when you need it, since that is a very important life skill as well! (o゜▽゜)o☆ Now, back to the useful stuff at the top...
EDIT: A comment below made me realize that this info should be added too. Here is my reply to the comment saying I could just use MetaMask. I said in the title that this guide is for questions where MEW and MetaMask aren’t working, but I guess it’s easy to miss. I used my u/caddark account to respond: (Using this account because u/caddarkcrypto doesn’t meet the karma/age standards to comment; the post had to be manually approved.) I guess I didn’t make it entirely clear; sorry: The target audience for this guide is anyone with a stuck Ethereum transaction that was initiated through Ledger Live AND are experiencing the same difficulties I had encountered while trying to fix this issue for myself. This wasn’t any regular stuck Ethereum transaction. Apparently before, there was an issue that made a Ledger Nano nearly impossible to connect to MetaMask (which is also Brave Browser’s integrated “crypto wallet” for the desktop version) and/or MEW (also perhaps any other browser wallets made for chrome and/or brave) that I heard was supposed to be fixed in a recent update. It might’ve been mostly patched, idk, but during my experience, (in which I was using the latest version of Ledger Live that is available right now,) that issue still remained. The really weird part was that it successfully connected to the browser wallets again after I fixed the stuck transaction. At first I thought that somehow the txn was what was bugging the connection. However, later, during no txn issues, I was again unable to connect. Seeing the same connection error again later, I opened up the MCW app I downloaded the day before, and was going to just use that. While in the process of operating MCW, I suddenly had another idea to try for the browser wallet so I went back to that just to quickly test it. The browser wallet worked perfectly... I don’t know how, but I think that somehow, something in MCW’s software, makes the browser wallets work. They don’t work for me without having MCW opened in the background first. EDIT 2: Markdown decided to stop working after I did the first edit... I might fix it tomorrow... how did that happen though??? What did I do? EDIT 3: nvm, I'm just fixing it now; I won't get much sleep tonight I guess.
What prevents state actors from proxying millions (USD) to mining pools to launch a 51% attack.
u/cointastical made some awesome arguments about a POW fork being pre-baked and ready as a "break glass" emergency roll-out. This HAS been done before BTW. Another great idea about having a grass-roots campaign for everyone to use the invalidateblock command on their node to nullify the attack. Again done before, though on another coin. Assuming that there exists some subset of miners that work completely to their own self interests and without any greater good or altruistic motives, how would you foresee the following dystopian fiction play out. By rough estimates about 80% (proof tbd) of the bitcoin network mining exists in mining pools. These pools compete in a free market to entice independent miners to join their pool. The rates are paid in BTC per TH/s. The current price to "rent" the entire bitcoin networks pooled mining resources is about $9 to $10 million / day (proof). This is entirely within the budget of state actors, even the $3 billion to rent the bitcoin network for an entire year doesn't sound far fetched when considering government spending. So if a state actor (government) were to partner with some established mining pool they could subsidize that pool to offer unrealistically high rates to entice more and more miners (in their self interest) to join their pool. Once they reach majority (51%) they could exclude blocks from other small independent mining pools tilting the tables more in their favor. These early attacks would create long (25 block) reorgs (proof), but eventually, as they gained more market, they could make the attacks pretty quick. Each attack could exclude blocks from a 1% pool, 2% pool, and so-forth till they attack 1/3 (33%) of the miners at which point they control the whole network (proof tbd). So assuming miners work in their own self interest, why wouldn't they join this obviously evil mining pool if that pool was offering 50% above market rate for their mining power compared to competitors?
Author: Gamals Ahmed, CoinEx Business Ambassador https://preview.redd.it/5bqakdqgl3g51.jpg?width=865&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b709794863977eb6554e3919b9e00ca750e3e704 A decentralized storage network that transforms cloud storage into an account market. Miners obtain the integrity of the original protocol by providing data storage and / or retrieval. On the contrary, customers pay miners to store or distribute data and retrieve it. Filecoin announced, that there will be more delays before its main network is officially launched. Filecoin developers postponed the release date of their main network to late July to late August 2020. As mentioned in a recent announcement, the Filecoin team said that the initiative completed the first round of the internal protocol security audit. Platform developers claim that the results of the review showed that they need to make several changes to the protocol’s code base before performing the second stage of the software testing process. Created by Protocol Labs, Filecoin was developed using File System (IPFS), which is a peer-to-peer data storage network. Filecoin will allow users to trade storage space in an open and decentralized market. Filecoin developers implemented one of the largest cryptocurrency sales in 2017. They have privately obtained over $ 200 million from professional or accredited investors, including many institutional investors. The main network was slated to launch last month, but in February 2020, the Philly Queen development team delayed the release of the main network between July 15 and July 17, 2020. They claimed that the outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in China was the main cause of the delay. The developers now say that they need more time to solve the problems found during a recent codecase audit. The Filecoin team noted the following: “We have drafted a number of protocol changes to ensure that building our major network launch is safe and economically sound.” The project developers will add them to two different implementations of Filecoin (Lotus and go-filecoin) in the coming weeks. Filecoin developers conducted a survey to allow platform community members to cast their votes on three different launch dates for Testnet Phase 2 and mainnet. The team reported that the community gave their votes. Based on the vote results, the Filecoin team announced a “conservative” estimate that the second phase of the network test should begin by May 11, 2020. The main Filecoin network may be launched sometime between July 20 and August 21, 2020. The updates to the project can be found on the Filecoin Road Map. Filecoin developers stated: “This option will make us get the most important protocol changes first, and then implement the rest as protocol updates during testnet.” Filecoin is back down from the final test stage. Another filecoin decentralized storage network provider launched its catalytic test network, the final stage of the storage network test that supports the blockchain. In a blog post on her website, Filecoin said she will postpone the last test round until August. The company also announced a calibration period from July 20 to August 3 to allow miners to test their mining settings and get an idea of how competition conditions affected their rewards. Filecoin had announced earlier last month that the catalytic testnet test would precede its flagship launch. The delay in the final test also means that the company has returned the main launch window between August 31 and September 21. Despite the lack of clear incentives for miners and multiple delays, Filecoin has succeeded in attracting huge interest, especially in China. Investors remained highly speculating on the network’s mining hardware and its premium price. Mining in Filecoin In most blockchain protocols, “miners” are network participants who do the work necessary to promote and maintain the blockchain. To provide these services, miners are compensated in the original cryptocurrency. Mining in Filecoin works completely differently — instead of contributing to computational power, miners contribute storage capacity to use for dealing with customers looking to store data. Filecoin will contain several types of miners: Storage miners responsible for storing files and data on the network. Miners retrieval, responsible for providing quick tubes for file recovery. Miners repair to be carried out. Storage miners are the heart of the network. They earn Filecoin by storing data for clients, and computerizing cipher directories to check storage over time. The probability of earning the reward reward and transaction fees is proportional to the amount of storage that the Miner contributes to the Filecoin network, not the hash power. Retriever miners are the veins of the network. They earn Filecoin by winning bids and mining fees for a specific file, which is determined by the market value of the said file size. Miners bandwidth and recovery / initial transaction response time will determine its ability to close recovery deals on the network. The maximum bandwidth of the recovery miners will determine the total amount of deals that it can enter into. In the current implementation, the focus is mostly on storage miners, who sell storage capacity for FIL.
The current system specifications recommended for running the miner are:
NVIDIA-manufactured GPU (to be expanded).
SSD drive designated as large buffer (512GB +).
Large amount of RAM for data replication account (128GB +)
Compared to the hardware requirements for running a validity checker, these standards are much higher — although they definitely deserve it. Since these will not increase in the presumed future, the money spent on Filecoin mining hardware will provide users with many years of reliable service, and they pay themselves many times. Think of investing as a small business for cloud storage. To launch a model on the current data hosting model, it will cost millions of dollars in infrastructure and logistics to get started. With Filecoin, you can do the same for a few thousand dollars. Proceed to mining Deals are the primary function of the Filecoin network, and it represents an agreement between a client and miners for a “storage” contract. Once the customer decides to have a miner to store based on the available capacity, duration and price required, he secures sufficient funds in a linked portfolio to cover the total cost of the deal. The deal is then published once the mine accepts the storage agreement. By default, all Filecoin miners are set to automatically accept any deal that meets their criteria, although this can be disabled for miners who prefer to organize their deals manually. After the deal is published, the customer prepares the data for storage and then transfers it to the miner. Upon receiving all the data, the miner fills in the data in a sector, closes it, and begins to provide proofs to the chain. Once the first confirmation is obtained, the customer can make sure the data is stored correctly, and the deal has officially started. Throughout the deal, the miner provides continuous proofs to the chain. Clients gradually pay with money they previously closed. If there is missing or late evidence, the miner is punished. More information about this can be found in the Runtime, Cut and Penalties section of this page. At Filecoin, miners earn two different types of rewards for their efforts: storage fees and reward prevention. Storage fees are the fees that customers pay regularly after reaching a deal, in exchange for storing data. This fee is automatically deposited into the withdrawal portfolio associated with miners while they continue to perform their duties over time, and is locked for a short period upon receipt. Block rewards are large sums given to miners calculated on a new block. Unlike storage fees, these rewards do not come from a linked customer; Instead, the new FIL “prints” the network as an inflationary and incentive measure for miners to develop the chain. All active miners on the network have a chance to get a block bonus, their chance to be directly proportional to the amount of storage space that is currently being contributed to the network. Duration of operation, cutting and penalties “Slashing” is a feature found in most blockchain protocols, and is used to punish miners who fail to provide reliable uptime or act maliciously against the network. In Filecoin, miners are susceptible to two different types of cut: storage error cut, unanimously reduce error. Storage Error Reduction is a term used to include a wider range of penalties, including error fees, sector penalties, and termination fees. Miners must pay these penalties if they fail to provide reliability of the sector or decide to leave the network voluntarily. An error fee is a penalty that a miner incurs for each non-working day. Sector punishment: A penalty incurred by a miner of a disrupted sector for which no error was reported before the WindowPoSt inspection. The sector will pay an error fee after the penalty of the sector once the error is discovered. Termination Fee: A penalty that a miner incurs when a sector is voluntary or involuntarily terminated and removed from the network. Cutting consensus error is the penalty that a miner incurs for committing consensus errors. This punishment applies to miners who have acted maliciously against the network consensus function. Filecoin miners Eight of the top 10 Felticoin miners are Chinese investors or companies, according to the blockchain explorer, while more companies are selling cloud mining contracts and distributed file sharing system hardware. CoinDesk’s Wolfe Chao wrote: “China’s craze for Filecoin may have been largely related to the long-standing popularity of crypto mining in the country overall, which is home to about 65% of the computing power on Bitcoin at discretion.” With Filecoin approaching the launch of the mainnet blocknet — after several delays since the $ 200 million increase in 2017 — Chinese investors are once again speculating strongly about network mining devices and their premium prices. Since Protocol Labs, the company behind Filecoin, released its “Test Incentives” program on June 9 that was scheduled to start in a week’s time, more than a dozen Chinese companies have started selling cloud mining contracts and hardware — despite important details such as economics Mining incentives on the main network are still endless. Sales volumes to date for each of these companies can range from half a million to tens of millions of dollars, according to self-reported data on these platforms that CoinDesk has watched and interviews with several mining hardware manufacturers. Filecoin’s goal is to build a distributed storage network with token rewards to spur storage hosting as a way to drive wider adoption. Protocol Labs launched a test network in December 2019. But the tokens mined in the testing environment so far are not representative of the true silicon coin that can be traded when the main network is turned on. Moreover, the mining incentive economics on testnet do not represent how final block rewards will be available on the main network. However, data from Blockecoin’s blocknetin testnet explorers show that eight out of 10 miners with the most effective mining force on testnet are currently Chinese miners. These eight miners have about 15 petabytes (PB) of effective storage mining power, accounting for more than 85% of the total test of 17.9 petable. For the context, 1 petabyte of hard disk storage = 1000 terabytes (terabytes) = 1 million gigabytes (GB). Filecoin craze in China may be closely related to the long-standing popularity of crypt mining in the country overall, which is home to about 65% of the computing power on Bitcoin by estimation. In addition, there has been a lot of hype in China about foreign exchange mining since 2018, as companies promote all types of devices when the network is still in development. “Encryption mining has always been popular in China,” said Andy Tien, co-founder of 1475, one of several mining hardware manufacturers in Philquin supported by prominent Chinese video indicators such as Fenbushi and Hashkey Capital. “Even though the Velikoyen mining process is more technologically sophisticated, the idea of mining using hard drives instead of specialized machines like Bitcoin ASIC may be a lot easier for retailers to understand,” he said. Meanwhile, according to Feixiaohao, a Chinese service comparable to CoinMarketCap, nearly 50 Chinese crypto exchanges are often somewhat unknown with some of the more well-known exchanges including Gate.io and Biki — have listed trading pairs for Filecoin currency contracts for USDT. In bitcoin mining, at the current difficulty level, one segment per second (TH / s) fragmentation rate is expected to generate around 0.000008 BTC within 24 hours. The higher the number of TH / s, the greater the number of bitcoins it should be able to produce proportionately. But in Filecoin, the efficient mining force of miners depends on the amount of data stamped on the hard drive, not the total size of the hard drive. To close data in the hard drive, the Filecoin miner still needs processing power, i.e. CPU or GPU as well as RAM. More powerful processors with improved software can confine data to the hard drive more quickly, so miners can combine more efficient mining energy faster on a given day. As of this stage, there appears to be no transparent way at the network level for retail investors to see how much of the purchased hard disk drive was purchased which actually represents an effective mining force. The U.S.-based Labs Protocol was behind Filecoin’s initial coin offer for 2017, which raised an astonishing $ 200 million. This was in addition to a $ 50 million increase in private investment supported by notable venture capital projects including Sequoia, Anderson Horowitz and Union Square Ventures. CoinDk’s parent company, CoinDk, has also invested in Protocol Labs. After rounds of delay, Protocol Protocols said in September 2019 that a testnet launch would be available around December 2019 and the main network would be rolled out in the first quarter of 2020. The test started as promised, but the main network has been delayed again and is now expected to launch in August 2020. What is Filecoin mining process? Filecoin mainly consists of three parts: the storage market (the chain), the blockecin Filecoin, and the search market (under the chain). Storage and research market in series and series respectively for security and efficiency. For users, the storage frequency is relatively low, and the security requirements are relatively high, so the storage process is placed on the chain. The retrieval frequency is much higher than the storage frequency when there is a certain amount of data. Given the performance problem in processing data on the chain, the retrieval process under the chain is performed. In order to solve the security issue of payment in the retrieval process, Filecoin adopts the micro-payment strategy. In simple terms, the process is to split the document into several copies, and every time the user gets a portion of the data, the corresponding fee is paid. Types of mines corresponding to Filecoin’s two major markets are miners and warehousers, among whom miners are primarily responsible for storing data and block packages, while miners are primarily responsible for data query. After the stable operation of the major Filecoin network in the future, the mining operator will be introduced, who is the main responsible for data maintenance. In the initial release of Filecoin, the request matching mechanism was not implemented in the storage market and retrieval market, but the takeover mechanism was adopted. The three main parts of Filecoin correspond to three processes, namely the stored procedure, retrieval process, packaging and reward process. The following figure shows the simplified process and the income of the miners: The Filecoin mining process is much more complicated, and the important factor in determining the previous mining profit is efficient storage. Effective storage is a key feature that distinguishes Filecoin from other decentralized storage projects. In Filecoin’s EC consensus, effective storage is similar to interest in PoS, which determines the likelihood that a miner will get the right to fill, that is, the proportion of miners effectively stored in the entire network is proportional to final mining revenue. It is also possible to obtain higher effective storage under the same hardware conditions by improving the mining algorithm. However, the current increase in the number of benefits that can be achieved by improving the algorithm is still unknown. It seeks to promote mining using Filecoin Discover Filecoin announced Filecoin Discover — a step to encourage miners to join the Filecoin network. According to the company, Filecoin Discover is “an ever-growing catalog of numerous petabytes of public data covering literature, science, art, and history.” Miners interested in sharing can choose which data sets they want to store, and receive that data on a drive at a cost. In exchange for storing this verified data, miners will earn additional Filecoin above the regular block rewards for storing data. Includes the current catalog of open source data sets; ENCODE, 1000 Genomes, Project Gutenberg, Berkley Self-driving data, more projects, and datasets are added every day. Ian Darrow, Head of Operations at Filecoin, commented on the announcement: “Over 2.5 quintillion bytes of data are created every day. This data includes 294 billion emails, 500 million tweets and 64 billion messages on social media. But it is also climatology reports, disease tracking maps, connected vehicle coordinates and much more. It is extremely important that we maintain data that will serve as the backbone for future research and discovery”. Miners who choose to participate in Filecoin Discover may receive hard drives pre-loaded with verified data, as well as setup and maintenance instructions, depending on the company. The Filecoin team will also host the Slack (fil-Discover-support) channel where miners can learn more. Filecoin got its fair share of obstacles along the way. Last month Filecoin announced a further delay before its main network was officially launched — after years of raising funds. In late July QEBR (OTC: QEBR) announced that it had ceded ownership of two subsidiaries in order to focus all of the company’s resources on building blockchain-based mining operations. The QEBR technology team previously announced that it has proven its system as a Filecoin node valid with CPU, GPU, bandwidth and storage compatibility that meets all IPFS guidelines. The QEBR test system is connected to the main Filecoin blockchain and the already mined filecoin coin has already been tested. “The disclosure of Sheen Boom and Jihye will allow our team to focus only on the upcoming global launch of Filecoin. QEBR branch, Shenzhen DZD Digital Technology Ltd. (“ DZD “), has a strong background in blockchain development, extraction Data, data acquisition, data processing, data technology research. We strongly believe Filecoin has the potential to be a leading blockchain-based cryptocurrency and will make every effort to make QEBR an important player when Mainecoin mainnet will be launched soon”. IPFS and Filecoin Filecoin and IPFS are complementary protocols for storing and sharing data in a decentralized network. While users are not required to use Filecoin and IPFS together, the two combined are working to resolve major failures in the current web infrastructure. IPFS It is an open source protocol that allows users to store and transmit verifiable data with each other. IPFS users insist on data on the network by installing it on their own device, to a third-party cloud service (known as Pinning Services), or through community-oriented systems where a group of individual IPFS users share resources to ensure the content stays live. The lack of an integrated catalytic mechanism is the challenge Filecoin hopes to solve by allowing users to catalyze long-term distributed storage at competitive prices through the storage contract market, while maintaining the efficiency and flexibility that the IPFS network provides. Using IPFS In IPFS, the data is hosted by the required data installation nodes. For data to persist while the user node is offline, users must either rely on their other peers to install their data voluntarily or use a central install service to store data. Peer-to-peer reliance caching data may be a good thing as one or multiple organizations share common files on an internal network, or where strong social contracts can be used to ensure continued hosting and preservation of content in the long run. Most users in an IPFS network use an installation service. Using Filecoin The last option is to install your data in a decentralized storage market, such as Filecoin. In Filecoin’s structure, customers make regular small payments to store data when a certain availability, while miners earn those payments by constantly checking the integrity of this data, storing it, and ensuring its quick recovery. This allows users to motivate Filecoin miners to ensure that their content will be live when it is needed, a distinct advantage of relying only on other network users as required using IPFS alone. Filecoin, powered by IPFS It is important to know that Filecoin is built on top of IPFS. Filecoin aims to be a very integrated and seamless storage market that takes advantage of the basic functions provided by IPFS, they are connected to each other, but can be implemented completely independently of each other. Users do not need to interact with Filecoin in order to use IPFS. Some advantages of sharing Filecoin with IPFS:
Filecoin and IPFS CIDs share hash specifications.
Use libp2p by Filecoin nodes to create secure connections with each other.
Messaging between nodes and cluster propagation is facilitated in Filecoin by libp2p pubsub.
IPLD use for blockchain data structures.
Use Graphsync to transfer data between nodes.
Of all the decentralized storage projects, Filecoin is undoubtedly the most interested, and IPFS has been running stably for two years, fully demonstrating the strength of its core protocol. Filecoin’s ability to obtain market share from traditional central storage depends on end-user experience and storage price. Currently, most Filecoin nodes are posted in the IDC room. Actual deployment and operation costs are not reduced compared to traditional central cloud storage, and the storage process is more complicated. PoRep and PoSt, which has a large number of proofs of unknown operation, are required to cause the actual storage cost to be so, in the early days of the release of Filecoin. The actual cost of storing data may be higher than the cost of central cloud storage, but the initial storage node may reduce the storage price in order to obtain block rewards, which may result in the actual storage price lower than traditional central cloud storage. In the long term, Filecoin still needs to take full advantage of its P2P storage, convert storage devices from specialization to civil use, and improve its algorithms to reduce storage costs without affecting user experience. The storage problem is an important problem to be solved in the blockchain field, so a large number of storage projects were presented at the 19th Web3 Summit. IPFS is an important part of Web3 visibility. Its development will affect the development of Web3 to some extent. Likewise, Web3 development somewhat determines the future of IPFS. Filecoin is an IPFS-based storage class project initiated by IPFS. There is no doubt that he is highly expected. Resources :
The discrepancy between BTC's hashrate and price are extremely suspicious
Assuming fairly efficient ASIC miners, which on average have an efficiency of ~34.5 J/TH: c = Current hashrate = 88,200,000 TH/s e = ASIC Efficiency (average) = 34.5 J/TH a = Average electricity (including industrial and other expenses) = $0.12 USD/kWh b = Current Block Reward = ₿6.25 m = Mining Fee Subsidies = ~₿ 9.5 ∴ price = ~[((c * e)/6,000)(a)] / (b + m) = ~$3864 to produce 1 Bitcoin The actual market price is 138% above the cost of actually producing a Bitcoin. Edit 1: I was an idiot, and forgot that the mining fees were what were collected daily (thanks to u/impleplum, so recalculating, it costs roughly ~$9016 to produce a Bitcoin, making the market value 2% above the cost of production, but Bitcoin Cash still costs $265 to produce, still making it 14% more expensive to mine Bitcoin Cash than the actual market value of it.
Bitcoin Hashrate Has Hit a New Record-High Again, Here's Why It's Optimistic
The total hash rate of the Bitcoin blockchain network has hit an all-time high, demonstrating an optimistic after the halving. Bitcoin’s third block reward halving in history occurred on May 11, 2020. Immediately after, its hash rate dropped from 121 million terahash per second (TH/s) to 90 million TH/S. The rapid recovery of Bitcoin’s hash rate shows that the mining sector is healthy, which could lead to market stability. A positive catalyst for Bitcoin in the medium-term Following a block reward halving, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network tends to drop substantially. The halving drops the amount of BTC miners can produce by half, causing their revenues to decline. When miners struggle with recurring expenses as a result of lower BTC production, they typically sell their BTC reserves. In the short-term, until a major difficulty adjustment occurs, the risk of miner capitulation or massive selling pressure is low. Alejandro De La Torre, the vice president of Poolin, explained that older machines have become profitable as well. That means even individual miners could be profitable and are likely less compelled to sell BTC. Torre explained: “Yesterday's two-week difficulty re-adjustment saw a decrease of - 2.87% & an average hash rate of 120.57 EH/s. What's interesting here is that the hashrate continues to increase, definitely related to the current #bitcoin price - older machines are profitable again.” Consequently, Torre said the hash rate of the Bitcoin network would likely continue to increase. The difficulty to mine BTC is lower than in previous weeks, and the price of BTC is above $11,000. He noted: “Difficulty is now lower than the last two weeks from 17.35T to 16.85T and the price is much higher so expect strong hashing for the next two weeks, all dependent of the price at the end of the day.” A record-high hash rate merely three months after the halving can be considered an optimistic trend. It shows that due to varying factors, which includes cheaper electricity in Sichuan, China, the mining industry is stable. Many large mining centers are based in Sichuan. Due to the rainy season and the presence of hydropower plants, lower-cost electricity is available for miners. Optimistic market cycle According to data from ByteTree, the net inventory of miners over the past five weeks is hovering at 30 BTC. The data shows that miners have not sold more than they mine, which leads to less selling pressure on BTC. Relatively low selling pressure from miners is a positive factor that could allow BTC to sustain its strong momentum. It also indicates that Bitcoin is on track to recover from the halving before the fourth quarter of this year, demonstrating the resilience of the sector. About the author Joseph Young Joseph Young is an analyst based in South Korea that has been covering finance, fintech, and cryptocurrency since 2013. He has worked with various recognized publications in both the finance and cryptocurrency industries.
Thoughts on if/how this may affect price? https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/marathon-patent-MARA/stock-news/82423475/marathon-patent-group-announces-purchase-of-700-ne Marathon Patent Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA) ("Marathon" or "Company"), one of the few Nasdaq listed cryptocurrency mining companies in the United States, today announced the purchase of 700 next generation M30S+ ASIC Miners from MicroBT. The 700 miners produce 80/Th and will generate 56 PH/s (petahash) of hashing power, compared to companies current S-9 production of 46 PH/s. These next generation MicroBT ASIC miners are markedly more energy efficient than our existing S-9 Bitmain models. The company paid $1,277,455 and the purchase was funded with cash on hand. The company expects to take delivery at our Hosting Facility by the end of May and our hosting partner, Compute North, expects to install them within 48 hours of their arrival. The M30S+ is one of the latest generations of bitcoin (“BTC”) Application Specific Integrated Circuit (“ASIC”) miners from MicroBT. It can achieve 100 TH/s at 34J/T and has already proven to be highly stable. The units come with a 1-year warranty versus the industry standard 6-month warranty.
The Intellectual Foundation of Bitcoin比特幣的智識基礎. By Chapman Chen, HKBNews
https://preview.redd.it/w6v3l8n3zxu41.jpg?width=2551&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fb0338a36a1a321d3781f43ff5eb6929d8b92edc Summary: Bitcoin was invented by the anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto as recently as 2008, but it is backed up by a rich intellectual foundation. For instance, The 1776 First Amendment separates church and state, and contemporary American liberation psychologist Nozomi Hayase (2020) argues that money and state should similarly be separated. Just as Isaac Newton’s study of alchemy gave rise to the international gold standard, so has the anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto's desire for a “modernized gold standard” given rise to Bitcoin. Indeed, Bloomberg's 2020 report confirms Bitcoin to be gold 2.0. Montesquieu (1774) asserted that laws that secure inalienable rights can only be found in Nature, and the natural laws employed in Bitcoin include its consensus algorithm and the three natural laws of economics (self-interest, competition, and supply and demand). J.S. Mill (1859) preferred free markets to those controlled by governments. Ludwig von Mises (1951) argued against the hazards of fiat currency, urging for a return to the gold standard. Friedrich Hayek (1984) suggested people to invent a sly way to take money back from the hands of the government. Milton Friedman (1994) called for FED to be replaced by an automatic system and predicted the coming of a reliable e-cash. James Buchanan (1988) advocated a monetary constitution to constrain the governmental power of money creation. Tim May (1997) the cypherpunk proclaimed that restricting digital cash impinges on free speech, and envisioned a stateless digital form of money that is uncensorable. The Tofflers (2006) pictured a non-monetary economy. In 2016, UCLA Professor of Finance Bhagwan Chowdhry even nominated Satoshi for a Nobel Prize. Full Text: Separation between money and state The 1791 First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution enshrines free speech and separates church and state, but not money and state. "Under the First Amendment, individuals’ right to create, choose their own money and transact freely was not recognized as a part of freedom of expression that needs to be protected," Japanese-American liberation psychologist Nozomi Hayase (2020) points out (1). The government, banks and corporations collude together to encroach upon people's liberties by metamorphosing their inalienable rights into a permissioned from of legal rights. Fiat currencies function as a medium of manipulation, indulging big business to generate market monopolies. "Freedom of expression has become further stifled through economic censorship and financial blockage enacted by payment processing companies like Visa and MasterCard," to borrow Hayase's (2020) words. Satoshi is a Modern Newton Although most famous for discovering the law of gravity, Isaac Newton was also a practising alchemist. He never managed to turn lead into gold, but he did find a way to transmute silver into gold. In 1717, Newton announced in a report that, based on his studies, one gold guinea coin weighed 21 shillings. Just as Isaac Newton’s study of alchemy gave rise to the international gold standard, so has the desire for a “modernized gold standard” given rise to Bitcoin. "In a way, Satoshi is a modern Newton. They both believed trust is best placed in the unchangeable facets of our economy. Beneath this belief is the assumption that each individual is their own best master," as put by Jon Creasy (2019) (2). J.S. Mill: free markets preferable to those controlled by governments John Stuart Mill (1806-1873) the great English philosopher would be a Bitcoiner were he still around today. In On Liberty (1859), Mill concludes that free markets are preferable to those controlled by governments. He argues that economies function best when left to their own devices. Therefore, government intervention, though theoretically permissible, would be counterproductive. Bitcoin is precisely decentralized or uncontrolled by the government, unconfiscatable, permissonless, and disinflationary. Bitcoin regulates itself spontaneously via the ordinary operations of the system. "Rules are enforced without applying any external pressure," in Hayase's (2020) words. Ludwig von Mises (1958): Liberty is always Freedom from the Government In The Free Market and its Enemies, theoretical Austrian School economist Ludwig von Mises (1951) argues against the hazards of fiat currency, urging for a return to the gold standard. “A fiat money system cannot go on forever and must one day come to an end,” Von Mises states. The solution is a return to the gold standard, "the only standard which makes the determination of the purchasing power of money independent of the changing ideas of political parties, governments, and pressure groups" under present conditions. Interestingly, this is also one of the key structural attributes of Bitcoin, the world’s first, global, peer-to-peer, decentralized value transfer network. Actually, Bloomberg's 2020 report on Bitcoin confirms that it is gold 2.0. (3) Von Mises prefers the price of gold to be determined according to the contemporaneous market conditions. The bitcoin price is, of course, determined across the various global online exchanges, in real-time. There is no central authority setting a spot price for gold after the which the market value is settled on among the traders during the day. Hayek: Monopoly on Currency should End Austrian-British Nobel laureate Friedrich Hayek’s theory in his 1976 work, Denationalization of Money, was that not only would the currency monopoly be taken away from the government, but that the monopoly on currency itself should end with multiple alternative currencies competing for acceptance by consumers, in order "to prevent the bouts of acute inflation and deflation which have played the world for the past 60 years." He forcefully argues that if there is no free competition between different currencies within any nation, then there will be no free market. Bitcoin is, again, decentralized, and many other cryptocurrencies have tried to compete with it, though in vain. In a recently rediscovered video clip from 1984, Hayek actually suggested people to invent a cunning way to take money out of the hands of the government:- “I don’t believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can’t take them violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something they can’t stop” (4). Reviewing those words 36 years hence and it is difficult not to interpret them in the light of Bitcoin. Milton Friedman Called for FED to be Replaced by an Automatic System Nobel laureate economist Milton Friedman (1994) was critical of the Federal Reserve due to its poor performance and felt it should be abolished (5). Friedman (1999) believed that the Federal Reserve System should ultimately be replaced with a computer program, which makes us think of the computer code governing Bitcoin (6).[\](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_Federal_Reserve#cite_note-:2-12) He (1970) favored a system that would automatically buy and sell securities in response to changes in the money supply. This, he argued, would put a lid on inflation, setting spending and investment decisions on a surer footing (7). Bitcoin is exactly disflationary as its maximum possible supply is 21 million and its block reward or production rate is halved every four years. Friedman passed away before the coming of bitcoin, but he lived long enough to see the Internet’s spectacular rise throughout the 1990s. “I think that the Internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role of government," said Friedman in a 1999 interview with NTU/F. On the same occasion, he sort of predicted the emergence of Bitcoin, "The one thing that’s missing, but that will soon be developed, is a reliable e-cash, a method whereby on the Internet you can transfer funds from A to B, without A knowing B or B knowing A." (8) “Of course, Friedman didn’t predict the block chain,” summed up American libertarian economist Jeffery Tucker (2014). “But he was hoping for a trustless system. He saw the need.” (9). Bitcoin Computer Code as Constitution in the Buchananian Sense American economist cum Nobel laureate James Buchanan (1988) advocates constitutional constraints on the governmental power to create money (10). Buchanan distinguishes a managed monetary system—a system “that embodies the instrumental use of price-level predictability as a norm of policy”—from an automatic monetary system, “which does not, at any stage, involve the absolute price level” (Buchanan 1962, 164–65). Leaning toward the latter, Buchanan argues that automatic systems are characterized by an organization “of the institutions of private decision-making in such a way that the desired monetary predictability will emerge spontaneously from the ordinary operations of the system” (Buchanan 1962, 164). Again, "Bitcoin regulates itself through the spontaneous force of nature, flourishing healthy price discovery and competition in the best interest of everyone" (Hayase 2020). Shruti Rajagopalan (2018) argues that the computer code governing how the sundry nodes/computers within the Bitcoin network interact with one another is a kind of monetary constitution in the Buchananian sense. One of Buchanan's greatest inputs is to differentiate the choice of rules from the choice within rule (Buchanan 1990). One may regard the Bitcoin code as a sort of constitution and "the Bitcoin network engaging in both the choice of rules and choice within rules" (Rajagopalan 2018) (11). Tim May: Restricting Digital Cash may Impinge on Free Speech Cypherpunks are activists who since the 1980s have advocated global use of strong cryptography and privacy-enhancing technologies as a route to social and political liberation. Tim May (Timothy C. May [1951-2018]), one of the influential cypherpunks published The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto in September 1992, which foretold the coming of Bitcoin (12). Cypherpunks began envisioning a stateless digital form of money that cannot be censored and their collaborative pursuit created a movement akin to the 18th Enlightenment. At The 7th Conference on Computers, Freedom, and Privacy, Burlingame, CA. in 1997, Tim May equated money with speech, and argued that restricting digital cash may impinge on free speech, for spending money is often a matter of communicating orders to others, to transfer funds, to release funds, etc. In fact, most financial instruments are contracts or orders, instead of physical specie or banknotes (13). Montesquieu: Laws that secure inalienable rightscan only be found in Nature In his influential work The Spirit of Laws (1748), Montesquieu wrote, “Laws ... are derived from the nature of things … Law, like mathematics, has its objective structure, which no arbitrary whim can alter". Similarly, once a block is added to the end of the Bitcoin blockchain, it is almost impossible to go back and alter the contents of the block, unless every single block after it on the blockchain is altered, too. Cypherpunks knew that whereas alienable rights that are bestowed by law can be deprived by legislation, inalienable rights are not to be created but can be discovered by reason. Thus, laws that secure inalienable rights cannot be created by humankind but can be found in nature. The natural laws employed in Bitcoin to enshrine the inalienable monetary right of every human being include its consensus algorithm, and the three natural laws of economics (self-interest, competition, and supply and demand) as identified by Adam Smith, father of modern economics. Regarding mathematics, bitcoin mining is performed by high-powered computers that solve complex computational math problems. When computers solve these complex math problems on the Bitcoin network, they produce new bitcoin. And by solving computational math problems, bitcoin miners make the Bitcoin payment network trustworthy and secure, by verifying its transaction information. Regarding economic laws, in accordance with the principle of game theory to generate fairness, miners take part in an open competition. Lining up self-interests of all in a network, with a vigilant balance of risk and rewards, rules are put in force sans the application of any exterior pressure. "Bitcoin regulates itself through the spontaneous force of nature, flourishing healthy price discovery and competition in the best interest of everyone," to borrow the words of Hayase (2020). A Non-monetary Economy as Visualized by the Tofflers In their book, Revolutionary Wealth (2006), futurists Alvin Toffler and his wife Heidi Toffler toy with the concept of a world sans money, raising a third kind of economic transaction that is neither one-on-one barter nor monetary exchange. In the end, they settle on the idea that the newer non-monetary economy will exist shoulder-to-shoulder with the monetary sector in the short term, although the latter may eventually be eclipsed by the former in the long run. What both the Tofflers' The Third Wave (1980) and Revolutionary Wealth bring into question is the very premise of monetary exchange. The vacuum left over by cash in such a non-monetary economy may be filled up by Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto Nominated for Nobel Prize by UCLA Finance Prof. UCLA Anderson School Professor of Finance Bhagwan Chowdhry nominated Satoshi Nakamoto for the 2016 Nobel Prize in Economics on the following grounds:- It is secure, relying on almost unbreakable cryptographic code, can be divided into millions of smaller sub-units, and can be transferred securely and nearly instantaneously from one person to any other person in the world with access to internet bypassing governments, central banks and financial intermediaries such as Visa, Mastercard, Paypal or commercial banks eliminating time delays and transactions costs.... Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin Protocol has spawned exciting innovations in the FinTech space by showing how many financial contracts — not just currencies — can be digitized, securely verified and stored, and transferred instantaneously from one party to another (14). Fb link: https://www.facebook.com/hongkongbilingualnews/posts/947121432392288?__tn__=-R Web link: https://www.hkbnews.net/post/the-intellectual-foundation-of-bitcoin%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B9%A3%E7%9A%84%E6%99%BA%E8%AD%98%E5%9F%BA%E7%A4%8E-by-chapman-chen-hkbnews Disclaimer: This article is neither an advertisement nor professional financial advice. End-notes
Antminer T19 May Not Affect Bitcoin Hash Rate but Keeps Bitmain Ahead
The Antminer T19 by Bitmain may not have a big impact on the Bitcoin network, and it comes out amid the firm’s internal and post-halving uncertainty. Earlier this week, Chinese mining-hardware juggernaut Bitmain unveiled its new product, an application-specific integrated circuit called Antminer T19. The Bitcoin (BTC) mining unit is the latest to join the new generation of ASICs — state-of-the-art devices designed to mitigate increased mining difficulty by maximizing the terahashes-per-second output. The Antminer T19 announcement comes amid the post-halving uncertainty and follows the company’s recent problems with its S17 units. So, can this new machine help Bitmain to reinforce its somewhat hobbled position in the mining sector? T19: The cheaper S19 According to the official announcement, the Antminer T19 features a mining speed of 84 TH/s and a power efficiency of 37.5 joules per TH. The chips used in the new device are the same as those equipped in the Antminer S19 and S19 Pro, though it uses the new APW12 version of the power supply system that allows the device to start up faster. Bitmain usually markets its Antminer T devices as the most cost-effective ones, while the S-series models are presented as the top of the line in terms of productivity for their respective generation, Johnson Xu — the head of research and analytics at Tokensight — explained to Cointelegraph. According to data from F2Pool, one of the largest Bitcoin mining pools, Antminer T19s can generate $3.97 of profit each day, while Antminer S19s and Antminer S19 Pros can earn $4.86 and $6.24, respectively, based on an average electricity cost of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour. Antminer T19s, which consume 3,150 watts, are being sold for $1,749 per unit. Antminer S19 machines, on the other hand, cost $1,785 and consume 3,250 watts. Antminer S19 Pro devices, the most efficient of three, are considerably more expensive and go for $2,407. The reason Bitmain is producing another model for the 19 series is due to what is known as "binning" chips, Marc Fresa — the founder of mining firmware company Asic.to — explained to Cointelegraph: “When chips are designed they are meant to achieve specific performance levels. Chips that fail to hit their target numbers, such as not achieving the power standards or their thermal output, are often ‘Binned.’ Instead of throwing these chips in the garbage bin, these chips are resold into another unit with a lower performance level. In the case of Bitmain S19 chips that don’t make the cutoff are then sold in the T19 for cheaper since they do not perform as well as the counterpart.” The rollout of a new model “has nothing to do with the fact that machines are not selling well,” Fresa went on to argue, citing the post-halving uncertainty: “The biggest reason machines probably are not selling as well as manufacturers would like is because we are on a bit of a tipping point; The halving just happened, the price can go anyway and the difficulty is continuing to drop.” Product diversification is a common strategy for mining hardware producers, given that customers tend to aim for different specifications, Kristy-Leigh Minehan, a consultant and the former chief technology officer of Genesis Mining, told Cointelegraph: “ASICs don’t really allow for one model as consumers expect a certain performance level from a machine, and unfortunately silicon is not a perfect process — many times you’ll get a batch that performs better or worse than projected due to the nature of the materials. Thus, you end up with 5–10 different model numbers.” It is not yet clear how efficient the 19-series devices are because they have not shipped at scale, as Leo Zhang, the founder of Anicca Research, summed up in a conversation with Cointelegraph. The first batch of S19 units reportedly shipped out around May 12, while the T19 shipments will start between June 21 and June 30. It is also worth noting that, at this time, Bitmain only sells up to two T19 miners per user “to prevent hoarding.” Hardware problems and competitors The latest generation of Bitmain ASICs follows the release of the S17 units, which have received mostly mixed-to-negative reviews in the community. In early May, Arseniy Grusha, the co-founder of crypto consulting and mining firm Wattum, created a Telegram group for consumers unsatisfied with the S17 units they purchased from Bitmain. As Grusha explained to Cointelegraph at the time, out of the 420 Antminer S17+ devices his company bought, roughly 30%, or around 130 machines, turned out to be bad units. Similarly, Samson Mow, the chief strategy officer of blockchain infrastructure firm Blockstream, tweeted earlier in April that Bitmain customers have a 20%–30% failure rate with Antminer S17 and T17 units. “The Antminer 17 series is generally considered not great,” added Zhang. He additionally noted that Chinese hardware company and competitor Micro BT has been stepping on Bitmain’s toes lately with the release of its highly productive M30 series, which prompted Bitmain to step up its efforts: “Whatsminer gained significant market share in the past two years. According to their COO, in 2019 MicroBT sold ~35% of the network hashrate. Needless to say Bitmain is under a lot of pressure both from competitors and internal politics. They have been working on the 19 series for a while. The specs and price look very attractive.” Minehan confirmed that MicroBT has been gaining traction on the market, but refrained from saying that Bitmain is losing market share as a result: “I think MicroBT is offering option and bringing in new participants, and giving farms a choice. Most farms will have both Bitmain and MicroBT side by side, rather than exclusively host one manufacturer.” “I would say that MicroBT has taken up the existing market share that Canaan has left,” she added, referring to another China-based mining player that recently reported a net loss of $5.6 million in the first quarter of 2020 and cut the price of its mining hardware by up to 50%. Indeed, some large-scale operations seem to be diversifying their equipment with MicroBT units. Earlier this week, United States mining firm Marathon Patent Group announced that it had installed 700 Whatsminer M30S+ ASICs produced by MicroBT. However, it is also reportedly waiting for a delivery of 1,160 Antminer S19 Pro units produced by Bitmain, meaning that it also remains loyal to the current market leader. Will the hash rate be affected? Bitcoin’s hash rate plummeted 30% soon after the halving occurred as much of the older generation equipment became unprofitable due to the increased mining difficulty. That spurred miners to reshuffle, upgrading their current rigs and selling older machines to places where electricity is cheaper — meaning that some of them had to temporarily unplug. The situation has stabilized since, with the hash rate fluctuating around 100 TH/s for the past few days. Some experts attribute that to the start of the wet season in Sichuan, a southwest Chinese province where miners take advantage of low hydroelectricity prices between May and October. The arrival of the new generation of ASICs is expected to drive the hash rate even higher, at least once upgraded units become widely available. So, will the newly revealed T19 model make any impact on the state of the network? Experts agree that it won’t affect the hash rate to a major degree, as it’s a lower output model compared with the S19 series and MicroBT’s M30 series. Minehan said she doesn’t expect the T19 model “to have a huge impact that’s an immediate cause of concern,” as “most likely this is a run of <3500 units of a particular bin quality.” Similarly, Mark D’Aria, the CEO of crypto consulting firm Bitpro, told Cointelegraph: “There isn’t a strong reason to expect the new model to significantly affect the hashrate. It might be a slightly more compelling option to a miner with extraordinarily inexpensive electricity, but otherwise they likely would have just purchased an S19 instead.” Bitmain continues to hold leadership despite internal struggle At the end of the day, manufacturers are always in an arms race, and mining machines are simply commodity products, Zhang argued in a conversation with Cointelegraph: “Besides price, performance, and failure rate, there are not many factors that can help a manufacturer differentiate from the others. The relentless competition led to where we are today.” According to Zhang, as the iteration rate naturally slows down in the future, there will be more facilities using “creative thermal design such as immersion cooling,” hoping to maximize the mining efficiency beyond just using most powerful machines. As for now, Bitmain remains the leader of the mining race, despite having to deal with the largely defunct 17 series and an intensifying power struggle between its two co-founders, Jihan Wu and Micree Zhan, which recently resulted in reports of a street brawl. “Due to its recent internal issues, Bitmain is facing challenges to keep its strong position in the future thus they started to look at other things to expand its industry influences,” Xu told Cointelegraph. He added that Bitmain “will still dominate the industry position in the near future due to its network effect,” although its current problems might allow competitors such as MicroBT to catch up. Earlier this week, the power struggle inside Bitmain intensified even further as Micree Zhan, an ousted executive of the mining titan, reportedly led a group of private guards to overtake the company’s office in Beijing. Meanwhile, Bitmain continues to expand its operations. Last week, the mining company revealed it was extending its “Ant Training Academy” certification program to North America, with the first courses set to launch in the fall. As such, Bitmain seems to be doubling down on the U.S.-based mining sector, which has been growing recently. The Beijing-based company already operates what it classifies as “the world’s largest” mining facility in Rockdale, Texas, which has a planned capacity of 50 megawatts that can later be expanded to 300 megawatts.
So I was discussing this last week and honestly it all felt too simple, so I'm trying to get some stronger counterpoints to this argument. Goes something like this. You have some pool miner that wants to do a 51% attack. Lets assume the attack has three phases, the first phase is to try to accumulate 51% of the hashing power, next is the accumulation of more hashing power by ejecting other pools from through reorg. Finally when they aquired enough mining power they could blacklist exchange hotwallets or all manner of nefariousness. Lets further assume that everyone will act purely in their own self interest. For simplicity lets call the attacker "Spectre Pool".
Assuming Spectre Pool can hit something like 41% of the hashing power, the first goal is to accumulate more resources to hit 51%. Since pool mining is a commodity market, all Spectre has to do in this imaginary world is offer more than the market rate. Since they are already at 41% hashrate, they need to entice another 10% of the market to come to their pool. The obvious way to do this would be to offer a "new customer bonus" or something like that. Some promotion where they pay 1% above market price for the hashing power of pool members. So, given a network hashrate of 116.73 EH and a market rate of 0.101 USD/TH per day, the cost they would have to bear to offer a 1% promotion to entice 10% of the network would be: 116.73_EH / 0.101_USD/TH * 10% * 1% = 1,155,742 USD per day for each 1% "bonus" So, assuming they were willing to spend that much on "marketing", and that all miners worked in their own self interest, eventually they could lure enough miners over to achive 51%. Once they hit this threshold they could scale back on the "marketing" and thus reduce their daily burn.
Once at 51%, the next attack of Spectre will be to put their smallest competitor out of buisness. Lets call that the "Bond Pool", and pretend that Bond has 1.5% of the network hashing power. To put Bond out of buisness, with 51%, Spectere will need to reorg whenever Bond wins a block. By reorging to a chain without Bond, this will put Spectre one block behind and they will need to catch up. Once the reorg begins, Spectre will need to produce the longest chain on its own while starting one block behind. So we need to determine how long (statisticly) it will take Specter to produce n+1 blocks and compare that to how long (statisticly) it will take Bond to win one block. Although this can be hammered out in an iterive calculation, a better approach will be an algebraic solution. Lets walk through the equations:
d - The delta above majority. So at 51%, d=1%
n - The length of reorg that the minority pool could attempt
t - The pre-attack blocktime based on hashrate (assume 10 min)
M (aka Mp) - The percent of hashpower held by minority (49%)
S (aka Sp) - The percent of hashpower held by Spectre (51%)
m (aka Mt) - The blocktime durring attack on the minority chain
s (aka St) - The blocktime durring attack on the Spectre chain
n*m = s*(n+1) - Break even, when minority mines n at the same rate Spectre mines n+1
You can put the following into a GeoGebra CAS calculator to substitute and simplify the equations solve(n*m = s*(n+1), n) M = 1/2-d S = 1/2+d m = t/M s = t/S solve(n*m = s*(n+1), d) n = s/(m-s) b = m*M/p solve(b = s*(n+1),p) This will produce the following equations for the values we are interested in. m(t,d): t/(1/2-d) # from `m` define s(t,d): t/(1/2-d) # from `s` define n(s,m): s/(m-s) # from `n` solve d(n): 1/(4*n+2) # from `d` solve p(d): 2*d # from `p` solve b(t,p): t/p # from `b` define Plugging the equations into excel produces the following (assuming t=10)
So once d=0.98%, Specture will have 50.98% of the hashing power, allowing him to eject 1.96% of all blocks mined at will. Of course this is all statistical, so Spectre will want some margin for randomness. So it would make sense to attach 1.5% of the blocks when Spectre reaches 51% So once Spectre reaches 51% he has enough hashing power to prevent any of Bonds blocks (1.5%) from being included. Spectre can win a reorg (statistically) every 8.5 hrs and Bond can only produce a block (statisticly) every 11.1 hours. So once this attack starts, Spectre simply flashes his promotion to lure the miners in the Bond pool (who are receiving no reward) over to the Spectre pool. If he only gets one third of them, then he can increase his influence to 52% Doing the same math again, with 52% Spectre can ice out any pool who has up to 4% of the hashing. Then running the promotion, Spectre will try to get 40% of the "homeless miners". Now Spectre's power grows to 55% giving him the power to ice out 10% of his competitors. This can cascade on and on until Spectre is the only public pool left. Now, at 51% the attack and reorgs take many hours, but as more and more pools get targeted, more and more miners will jump ship and end up at Spectre so long as they can hold the promotion. Bond's only choice would be to either close up, or leverage everything and mine at a loss for weeks hoping that Spectre eventually drops below the threshold for his attack. Of course Spectre has even more tremendous expenses. To offer the 1% promo to 10% of the network would cost Spectre $1.16 million / day, or 3.52 million per month for each percent of miners it lures over. So going from 41% to 61% would cost Spectre $70.3 million / month, but at that point he can attack 20% of the network giving him a reach of about 80% which is pretty much the entire pooled mining capacity today. Seems like $70 million is a small price to pay to buy the entire bitcoin network. Other expenses Spectre would accrue would be related to the attacks and reorgs. The early attacks will take hours and throughout Spectre needs to continue payouts to the pool even though he is generating no BTC durring the attack. So long as his chain is orphaned, his blocks have no value. Only after the attack and reorg when his chain becomes longest will he be able to claim the block reward for all the blocks he minded. This (in my opinion) will the the hardest challenge. The first attack and 25 block reorg will require Spectre to put his entire 51% hashing power on an orphaned chain for 8 hours requireing $208.6 million in payouts. Once he wins the attack and the chain reorgs he can cover his expeses with the block reward, but borrowing $208 million for 8 hours is still a very difficult thing to pull off. The interest alone on the attack is over $40,000 (20% interest compounded continually). Below is a table of the calculations
Levrg / Block
Of course, once Spectre gets 2/3 of the hashing power he controls the entire chain since he can include or exclude any block he wants. So this "Total Self Interest" simulation of a 6 day attack puts Spectre's expenses at $10.3 million in promotions and $71,000 in interest, or about $10.4 million total. 1 - All "hashes" are hashes per second 2 - TH = 1012 or 10004 hashes per second 3 - EH = 1018 or 10006 hashes per second 4 - Assume a market rate of 0.101 USD / TH / day 5 - Assume an average daily network hashrate of 116.73 EH
TH = 1012 = 10004 hashes_per_second EH = 1018 = 10006 hashes_per_second 21.113 0.101 daily USD per TH/s 116.73 EH/s So I was discussing this last week and honestly it all felt too simple, so I'm trying to get some stronger counterpoints to this argument. Goes something like this. You have some pool miner that wants to do a 51% attack. Lets assume the attack has three phases, the first phase is to try to accumulate 51% of the hashing power, next is the accumulation of more hashing power by ejecting other pools from through reorg. Finally when they aquired enough mining power they could blacklist exchange hotwallets or all manner of nefariousness. Lets further assume that everyone will act purely in their own self interest. For simplicity lets call the attacker "Spectre Pool".
Assuming Spectre Pool can hit something like 41% of the hashing power, the first goal is to accumulate more resources to hit 51%. Since pool mining is a commodity market, all Spectre has to do in this imaginary world is offer more than the market rate. Since they are already at 41% hashrate, they need to entice another 10% of the market to come to their pool. The obvious way to do this would be to offer a "new customer bonus" or something like that. Some promotion where they pay 1% above market price for the hashing power of pool members. So, given a network hashrate of 116.73 EH and a market rate of 0.101 USD/TH per day, the cost they would have to bear to offer a 1% promotion to entice 10% of the network would be: 116.73_EH / 0.101_USD/TH * 10% * 1% = 1,155,742 USD per day for each 1% "bonus" So, assuming they were willing to spend that much on "marketing", and that all miners worked in their own self interest, eventually they could lure enough miners over to achive 51%. Once they hit this threahold they could scale back on the "marketing" and thus reduce their daily burn.
Once at 51%, the next attack of Spectre will be to put their smallest competitor out of buisness. Lets call that the "Bond Pool", and pretend that Bond has 1.5% of the network hashing power. To put Bond out of buisness, with 51%, Spectere will need to reorg whenever Bond wins a block. By reorging to a chain without Bond, this will put Spectre one block behind and they will need to catch up. Once the reorg begins, Spectre will need to produce the longest chain on its own while starting one block behind. So we need to determine how long (statisticly) it will take Specter to produce an n+1 blocks and compare that to how long (statisticly) with take Bond to produce another block. Although this can be hammered out iterive calculations, a better approach will be an algebraic solution. Lets walk through the equations:
d - The delta above majority. So at 51%, d=1%
n - The number of blocks the majority can reorg
t - The pre-reorg blocktime based on hashrate (10 min)
M (aka Mp) - The percent of hashpower held by minority (49%)
S (aka Mp) - The percent of hashpower held by Spectre (51%)
m (aka Mp) - The blocktime durring attack on the minority chain
s (aka Mp) - The blocktime durring attack on the Spectre chain
n*m = s*(n+1) - Break even, when minority mines n at the same rate Spectre mines n+1
You can put the following into a GeoGebra CAS calculator to substitute and simplify the equations solve(n*m = s*(n+1), n) M = 1/2-d S = 1/2+d m = t/M s = t/S solve(n*m = s*(n+1), d) n = s/(m-s) b = m*M/p solve(b = s*(n+1),p) This will produce the following equations for the values we are interested in. m(t,d): t*(1/2-d) # from `m` define s(t,d): t*(1/2-d) # from `s` define n(s,m): s/(m-s) # from `n` solve d(n): 1/(4*n+2) # from `d` solve p(d): 2*d # from `p` solve b(t,p): t/p # from `b` define Here's a table
solve(nm = s(n+1), d) n = s/(m-s) b = m*M/p ``` Tb = The avg time between blocks won by Bond durring the reorg Ts = The avg time for Spectre to produce a block durring the reorg Tm = The avg time for the main chain to produce a block durring the reorg n = The number of blocks Specter will need to reorg Tb = 10_min / 49% / 3% = 10.89 Hrs Ts = 10_min / 51% = 19.61 Min Tm = 10_min / 49% = 20.41 Min Solve for the amount of blocks Specter can reorg Tmn > Ts(n+1) Tnn > Tsn + Ts n > Ts/(Tn - Ts) n > 24.5 Therefore: Spectre can produce 26 blocks faster than the main chain can produce 25. Specter has to win the reorg before Bond produces another block Assert: Ts * (n+1) < Tb 19.61_min * 26 < 10.89_hrs 8.50_hrs < 10.89_hrs ``` So once Spectre reaches 51% he has enough hashing power to prevent any of Bonds blocks from being included. Spectre can win a reorg (statistically) every 8.5 hrs and Bond can only produce a block (statisticly) every 10.89 hours. So once this attack starts, Spectre simply flashes his promotion to lure the miners in the Bond pool (who are receiving no reward) over to the Spectre pool. If he only gets one third of them, then he can increase his influence to 52% Doing the same math again, with 52% Spectre can ice out any pool who has up to 7% of the hashing. Then running the promotion, Spectre will try to get 40% of the "homeless miners". Now Spectre's power grows to 55% giving him the power to ice out 16% of his competitors. This can cascade on and on until Spectre is the only public pool left. 1 - All "hashes" are hashes per second 2 - TH = 1012 or 10004 hashes per second 3 - EH = 1018 or 10006 hashes per second 4 - Assume a market rate of 0.101 USD / TH / day 5 - Assume an average daily network hashrate of 116.73 EH ``` solve(nm = s(n+1), n) M = 1/2-d S = 1/2+d m = t/M s = t/S solve(nm = s(n+1), d) n = s/(m-s) b = mM/p solve(b = s(n+1),p) m(t,d): t(1/2-d) # from m define s(t,d): t(1/2-d) # from s define n(s,m): s/(m-s) # from n solve d(n): 1/(4n+2) # from d solve p(d): 2d # from p solve b(t,p): t/p # from b define ```
Bitcoin Hashrate Records New All-Time High Amid Halving And BTC Bullish Momentum
With The Third Bitcoin Halving Already Here, Bitcoin Bulls Are Showing No Signs Of Support For The World’s Leading Cryptocurrency While the crypto world was frantic about Bitcoin’s third halving event, which occurred on May 12, it came with a bullish sentiment among traders and holders. However, the halving produced 5%-8% price swings in both directions prior to the halving. The market didn’t seem to respond to the much-anticipated halving. The weekend saw $1,3 billion in liquidations, which put pressure on Bitcoin bulls. Shortly after Bitcoin’s reward cut, Bitcoin’s price peaked, before correcting itself to currently trading at $8,745.98 Meanwhile, the Bitcoin mining industry seems to be going all-in on validating blocks, as the computing power on Bitcoin’s network, or hashrate, increased to a new all-time high. The 140 terra hash-per-second (TH/s) all-time high surpassed the recent 135 TH/s all-time high of March 2020, meaning that miners deployed all their recourses to celebrate the halving event. Source: Coinwarz The crypto community welcomed the halving, as TIE published data, showing the word “halving” being present in over 2,900 tweets. Reddit also showed signs of buzzing in the moments prior to the halving and shortly after it. Joshua Frank, TIE’s founder commented on the data, stating that “Bitcoin became a hot topic in the past 30 days, with a 72-percent conversation surge, and with peaks in search terms of Bitcoin and halving crypto related terms in Twitter. Bitcoin also surpassed 50,000 daily tweets, which is a new six-month high.” Source: Twitter “In the 30-day window prior to the halving, the word “halving” appears to be dominant in the conversations, regarding Bitcoin,” Frank added. Google searches for “bitcoin halving also increased four times, as opposed to the 2016 halving event. However, most crypto enthusiasts believed Bitcoin would record double, or even triple-digit price increase, due to the halving. The short rally proved them wrong, but many consider the real price surge to start in the following 18 to 24 months. Historically, Bitcoin showed an initial decrease in value before skyrocketing in both price and trading volumes. The halving event drove an increase in daily trading volumes in the month before the reward cut. However, trading volumes have increased 50 times since the last halving in 2016. Spot market volumes received a boost from a peak of $1,5 billion in June 2016, and it was close to $30 billion in April 2020. Nevertheless, market players are still stagnant about making strong predictions about Bitcoin’s future price, as this time it would take longer for the market to gain from the bullish momentum the halving created.
Triple Increase On BTC Transaction Fees Just Before Bitcoin`s Third Halving
The Average Price Per Bitcoin Transaction Reached $3,19 On 8th May, After Increasing With 300% From $0,62 Per BTC Transaction, As Of 26th April The world of cryptocurrencies is franticly preparing for Bitcoin’s third halving event, which would cut down the reward that miners receive for validating transactions. Historically, prior to a halving event, transaction fees skyrocket. The last halving resulted in peak transaction fee of $0,62, with transactions costing a mere $0,10 just weeks before. Source: Bitinfocharts However, the halving event means something more than just transaction fees increase. Bitcoin suffered from increased volatility over the past weekend, with prices swinging from close to $9,700 on May 10, to shrink as low as $8,466 on May 11. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s price is still 40% up year-to-date (YTD), which implies strong support from Bitcoin bulls. The price swing outperforms serious investment assets like gold (XAU) and U.S. dollars. Speculators expect the halving event to boost Bitcoin’s price, as the price inflation reduces when the reward for mining a Bitcoin block reduces in half. Тhe primary reason behind both Bitcoin’s price increase and inflation reduction is a term, called scarcity. Scarcity resembles how rare to obtain a given asset is. Meantime, Bitcoin’s user base is exponentially increasing. The current 1,800 BTC-per-day premium would be reduced to 900 BTC per day. Joe Llisteri, the co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange Interdax, stated that over time, the reduction of BTC supply would ultimately lead to a reduction in sell pressure. “The factors add up to an increase in upwards momentum for Bitcoin’s price.”, Llisteri added. Llisteri also noted that this time Bitcoin’s upwards momentum may see a slower effect, due to progressively longer life cycles for Bitcoin after a halving event. “Currently, we are looking at 18-24 months until a possible all-time high. Timewise, Bitcoin may reach an all-time high between October-November 2021 and May-June 2022.”, Llisteri concluded. However, small and medium-sized miners may take a serious hit, as the price reward cut may mitigate all possible earnings from small mining enthusiasts and mid-sized mining rigs. Even with the much-anticipated Bitcoin price boost, much of the miners may shut down operations prior to the price increase. Speaking of mining, Bitcoin’s hash rate continues to keep a steady growth, slightly declining from its yearly high of 123.2 terra hash-per-second (TH/s). There are two possible scenarios – either more miners are joining the Bitcoin network, or current miners are driving their existing rigs to a maximum.
05-05 19:14 - 'An Island Nation with Bitcoin as the currency' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Decamerch removed from /r/Bitcoin within 72-82min
''' Hello all, I am here with my plan for my [subreddit]1 Reddit Nation If you are interested in joining a (hopefully) newly formed island nation then this is the place to be. I have prepared a plan that explains how we will go about doing such a task. More detailed elaborations for each component of the plan will be given at request. Obviously the first question is where we would have our island. I have identified places of interest. One place of interest is the Nation of Belize. Belize is a small nation with a low GDP of 2 Billion and they are selling off most of their island. Islands with 50-100 acres can be acquired for around 500,000; give or take 50,000. From the people (Government Officials) I have contacted, they are perfectly okay with this plan. Now here is a 5 step proposal of how this will come to fruition (I will expand on how we will finance this)
Acquire the island
Set up the initial infrastructure
Form of Government that I propose is a constitutional monarchy
Country will be run as a democracy (two chamber form of parliament)
Noble titles such as Duke, Earl, Count, Lord, Baron etc will be sold off to help initially finance the island.
Establishment of the Government Building
For now this is where the government will convene until more infrastructure is added and the island is improved.
People will be made citizens at this location
Establishment of Civil Services
Waste collection, Police, Social Services
Establishment of a Port
This will allow supplies to enter the island.
This will allow for the island to participate with the rest of the world economically(I will expand on this later).
The port will function as the entrance point and exit until the runway can be constructed.
Establishment of Resident Housing
This temporary housing will be until the island can be developed and more permanent buildings can be put up.
Resident Housing and the Government building will be set up near the port until island development is completed
Set up a massive solar powered crypto mining operation to help finance further development of the island
A partnership with big mining companies can be brokered to have this set up
Make the Island a desirable location
Set up the island as a luxury city
Free housing for citizens
Free healthcare for citizens
Free schooling and university for citizens
Build resorts and legalize gambling on the island
The revenue generated from such activities will help finance further development of the island
With the revenue generated from this, the island will be able to provide for the residents a luxury city
The gambling industry investments will help to finance the island as well
Make the island a banking haven
Set up a bank on the island
No KYC laws will be enforced on the island
This will attract forgien investment into the island
Allow cryptocurrency companies to conduct business without oversight and for miners to set up large scale operations using solar powered energy
No income tax,sales tax, capital gains tax or corporate on the island
Commercial businesses such as casinos, resorts, and banks will just pay slightly inflated property taxes
This will help attract a lot more forgien investment as well
Will attract companies to set up offices here and thus bring jobs to the island.
Expand on the island infrastructure
Build an airport. The islands have enough space to accommodate runways for planes even up to jumbo jets
Build more free luxury housing for residents
Establish schools and universities
Establish a healthcare system
Enjoy the luxury haven of an Island that we have built
Now for the question of how much this island will cost and how we will get the funding According to my calculations (you can look at them below) it will cost us $2,600,000
The Island itself
200,000 to build
This will benefit us later when we receive forgien investments
500,000 for 250 passenger ferry
We will budget around 100,000 for operating costs
These buildings will be permanently built but occupied until the island is built and then will be sold off to recoup the investment.
Around 50,000 to purchase initial equipment and medical supplies
Another 100,000 to purchase ATVs
Another 100,000 to purchase off roading vehicles
Bitcoin mining operation
We will get the money for the operation by partnering with a large company
We will purchase MRE’s and other preserved food products for the island
An exact count of this cannot be made until we move further into the plan
Further development of the island
This will be financed by the forgien investments in regards to banking, gambling and tourism along with money raised from property taxes
Now in regards to how we will raise that sum
We will sell off noble titles (this is why we will set up a constitutional monarchy)
While no price has been established yet, the titles for sale can include
A small percentage of the island (less than 25%) will be earmarked for sale immediately. The part earmarked for sale will be part of the planned downtown district/capital and developers of this land will be allowed to build whatever structures they want and won't have the problem of jumping through hoops like zoning laws.
On a 60 acre island, 15 acres would be marked for sale
The acres on this haven of an island will be sold for 250,000 each so the island would raise 4.5 million and the sale of said acres will help kickstart the massive infrastructure of the island and provide the island with adequate funding.
Once the island is set up, the island will continue to profit from digital activities which will allow it to not have to charge an income tax or corporate tax
Digital activities include the solar powered bitcoin mining operation
We will partner with an existing bitcoin company for this
Solar powered web hosting
People can become citizens for a fee of $10 which will mainly go to the printing of their ID and filing in the government archives but the island will profit a few dollars off of this
Yes, it sounds paranoid. And I hope I'm wrong, but sometimes I feel like we are back to the times of Blockstream taking over Bitcoin. Here are some recent Deja vu moments: 1. BTC: Andersen didn't want to be a benevolent dictator, so he passed control over Bitcoin to core developers. And they kicked him out. ETH: Vitalik says in every interview that he is not controlling Ethereum anymore and that all recent major decisions were made without his involvement. And how he is happy about it. 2. BTC: Majority of bitcoin holders and redditors were for block increase, but core developers have decided otherwise. ETH: Majority of ether holders and redditors are for issuance reduction to 1 ETH, but developers have decided otherwise. BTC: Block increase required changing one single line of code, but developers explained that it is very hard and risky, that it required a lot of discussing and testing. At the same time, it wasn't hard or risky to change the whole bitcoin codebase, to make it segwit-compartible. ETH: Issuance reduction requires changing one single line of code, but it's just too risky. Seemingly, more risky than creating from scratch completely new Ethereum 02. 4. BTC: Block increase was just a several months away, but every time the months passed, goalpost was shifted. ETH: Issuance reduction is just a several months away, but the goalpost is shifting again and again. 5. BTC: Every time the reason for the postponing was different (because it was not the real reason, but a pretext). Wait, let's first discuss all BIPs for half-year. Wait, let's wait another half-year for a conference. Wait, let's wait another half-year for the second conference. Wait, let's wait another half-year for the segwit. ETH: Zero inflation by Summer! Wait, let's make it 4%, by Devcon. Wait, a non-related bug found, let's postpone till after Devcon. Wait, Santa is coming to town, let's postpone till January. Wait, miners can fork away, let's postpone till difficulty bomb explodes. 6. BTC: While eventually, when the n-th deadline was reached, they just plainly refused to do it at all. Ever. ETH: Now we are told that POW will run along POS, "for a foreseeable future". 7. BTC: Suggestions on scaling (like adding in-between blocks) were just not discussed and developers that were suggesting it weren't invited to the scaling conference. Instead, the conference discussed segwit. ETH: ProgPOW plans are not discussed on developers meetings anymore. Why? Just because. 8. BTC: "Block increase would reduce number of nodes! Risk of 51% attack!". But giving all control to mining pools is OK, it's not a 51% attack. ETH: "Issuance cut would reduce number of miners. Risk of 51% attack!". But developers doing things that good for miners only (high inflation, no ProgPOW) is OK, it's not a 51% attack. 9. BTC: Users, getting tired of broken promises, were losing faith in Bitcoin and leaving. Market share of Bitcoin have dropped from 85% to 32%. ETH: Users, getting tired of broken promises, are losing faith in Ethereum and leaving. Market share of Ethereum have dropped from 32% to 9%. 10. BTC: Attempts to discuss it on forums were blocked by moderators "because it's offtopic: altcoin discussion". ETH: Just yesterday it was a thread here, about all this concerns, about the need to reduce issuance, to cut inflation. Today the thread have mysteriously disappeared. Deleted by moderators. "Because it's offtopic: price was mentioned".
Bitcoin Mining Unit Manufacturer MicroBT Nibbles at Bitmain’s Market Share
Bitcoin miner maker MicroBT has rapidly expanded market share by selling over half a million units in 2019, chipping away at rival Bitmain's dominance. MicroBT sold about 600,000 units of its flagship WhatsMiner M20 series last year, Vincent Zhang, sales head of the Shenzhen-based company, said in an online panel hosted by Chinese mining pool Poolin on Thursday in a WeChat group. These products generate a computing power of about 60 terahashes per second (TH/s) on average, he said. That means the newly delivered 600,000 units may have contributed over 30 exahashes (EH/s) of hashing power to the bitcoin network in 2019. (1 EH = 1 million TH). Amid bitcoin's price jump throughout 2019, the network's two-week average computing power more than doubled from just 40 EH/s around the end of 2018 to nearly 100 EH/s in December. That'd mean close to half of bitcoin's computing power growth in 2019 may have come from equipment delivered by MicroBT. Zhang didn't specify the precise average unit price of these batches, as they could fluctuate depending on bitcoin's price over the year. But the firm's various models in its M20 product line are generally priced between $24 to $30 per terahash, meaning the firm has brought home a high nine-figure revenue in U.S. dollars for 2019. Bitcoin's current computing power stands at 110 EH/s. That also means MicroBT may account for around 30 percent of bitcoin mining power sold right now, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing miner makers in the world.
The total computing power now dedicated to securing the bitcoin blockchain has set yet another record.
According to data from mining services operator BTC.com, the average bitcoin mining hash rate over the last two weeks has reached 71.43 quintillion hashes per second (EH/s), up from 64.49EH/s on July 23. The threshold was breached as bitcoin adjusted its mining difficulty at block height 586,672 on Monday 2:52 UTC – that is a 6.94EH/s, or 10.78 percent jump since mid July. Bitcoin mining difficulty is a measure of how hard it is to compete for mining rewards on bitcoin. Just how difficult the bitcoin software makes it to generate new blocks adjusts every 2,016 blocks – approximately every 14 days – to ensure the block production time remains about 10 minutes at the next cycle. Assume this additional 6.9EH/s (or 6.9 million tera hashes per second, TH/s) computing power has all come from powerful ASIC miners, such as Bitmain’s AntMiner S17 or MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20S, both of which boast a mining rate of around 55TH/s and recently hit the market. That means more than 100,000 top-of-line ASIC miners could have been switched on within the past two weeks. Further, given these products have been sold for at least $2,000 each, this equates to some $200 million in revenue pocketed for major miner makers. The continued interest in bitcoin mining comes at a time when the cryptocurrency’s price appears to be en route to challenging all-time highs, however distantly, and amid the arrival of the rainy season in China, which leads to cheaper hydropower electricity costs in the country’s southwest provinces – a region that is reported to account for 50 percent of the global mining activity, Miners in China estimated earlier this year that bitcoin’s hash rate in the summer would break the level of 70EH/s. To be clear, at several single points of time, bitcoin’s hash rate had already crossed that level in June and even reached 80EH/s around Aug. 1. However, today marks the first time that the two-week average computing power has been able to remain above the 70EH/s threshold. As such, bitcoin’s mining difficulty has also set a new record of nearly 10 trillion.
Amidst this uptick in mining interest, there have been notable changes in the mining market, where top manufacturers are racing to produce more powerful equipment. For instance, in Bitmain’s 2018 initial public offering prospectus, the Beijing-based mining giant claimed it had a 70 percent market dominance. Now, it may be facing serious competition from rival players that some believe are capable of shipping more top-of-line products with better profitability. Michael Zhong, a former mining analyst who now operates mining farms at a startup called Force Mine, told CoinDesk that based on his experience, the production capacity ranking among major Chinese miner makers for their flagship products have changed over the years. Zhong explained that from 2017 to 2018, Bitmain had topped the list with its AntMiner S9 series miners, followed by Canaan’s Avalon 8 series machines. InnoSilicon, Ebang and former Bitmain design director’s MicroBT were all in the third position at the time. But from January to June this year, the delivery capacity ranking has reshuffled, with now MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20 series at the top, followed by Bitmain’s S17 series miners and then InnoSilicon, Canaan, and Ebang, Zhong added. According to F2pool’s miner profit tracker, Bitmain’s flagship AntMiner S17 Pro ranks third in terms of mining profitability, following BitFury’s Tardis and MicroBT’s WhatsMiner M20S. The cost for WhatsMiner M20S is around $3,000, while that of AntMiner S17 Pro is around $4,000 each, based on the information advertised on the two firms’ websites. Although orders for these flagship machines have queued up until November and December this year, MicroBT’s founder Zuoxing Yang told CoinDesk previously that the bottleneck of production capacity is the availability of chips from suppliers. For example, MicroBT uses 10-nm chips for its M20 series, which are relatively more affordable with a higher level of availability compared to more advanced 7-nm chips used by Bitmain for its AntMiner S17 series equipment. While Bitmain has always been relying on chips supplied by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), MicroBT has switched from TSMC to Samsung earlier this year for its flagship products. Both TSMC and Samsung have estimated in their most recent Q2 earnings calls that the demand for cryptocurrency mining chips will come back in the third and the fourth quarter this year. Operating miners image courtesy to Hashage https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-computing-power-sets-new-record-as-over-100k-miners-go-online?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=coindesk&utm_term=&utm_content=&utm_campaign=Organic%20
Survey: Investors Likely to Flow Back to Gold; China Blockchain Euphoria Fading
According to a recent Twitter survey, Bitcoin investors are likely to turn to gold as the cryptocurrency’s most recent hype fizzles out, leaving losses in its wake. The poll, conducted by Novem Gold, reveals the extent of the disillusionment among BTC enthusiasts as prices remain largely suppressed in H2 2019. This slump, however, is most alarming because it closely follows the sharp gains the coin had enjoyed after optimistic comments from the Chinese head of state regarding blockchain in October. The speech, widely regarded as a watershed moment for the cryptocurrency, could prove pivotal for Bitcoin and the crypto world. China’s massive population can single-handedly send the coin’s Bull Run back on track. In his speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping referred to blockchain as “ an important breakthrough.” Before the statement, the prevailing sentiment was that the Chinese government was anti-blockchain. The primary signal came after its September 2017 banning of initial coin offerings (ICOs). The speech was therefore interpreted as a green light indicating that China was willing to embrace cryptocurrency trading in all its aspects, which would push Bitcoin prices once more to the moon. China, for many years, has been the epicenter of blockchain and cryptocurrency activity. Before a large number of investors in other parts of the world grew accustomed to Bitcoin, China had already established itself as a mining hub. The East Asian nation has significantly contributed in many ways to the rise of the digital currency sector over the years. As an illustration, as of 2017 the country’s insatiable need for crypto assets was almost 90% of crypto’s total global trading volumes. Shockingly, just a few months into 2018, this demand dipped below the 1% mark. This decline in demand also followed Bitcoin’s most significant price dip, which saw it go from a high of $19,800 to a low of $6,200 each in less than two months.
China is Pro Blockchain
The excitement over the Xi Jinping speech was therefore palpable in October when he said that his country would “seize the opportunity” that blockchain offers in research, standardization, and development. The Chinese President is the first leader of a global economic giant to make such friendly remarks towards a technology that is maligned by some of his peers. If the government embraces cryptocurrencies, Chinese Bitcoin bulls would return and push prices through the roof. Following the unexpected speech, the price of Bitcoin temporarily surged, adding 40% after rallying to a high of $9,526 on November 4th. Unfortunately, the rise halted and a consistent correction happened, lowering the value of the token to a $6,524 mark on November 25th, a much lower price than before the Xi effect. Bitcoin has, however, recouped some of its losses over the last few days, but it is still trading at half the price in comparison to June 2019. The Chinese, in contrast to many other countries, have many advantages when it comes to cryptocurrency awareness. They have, for instance, long been aware of the virtues of speculation into new asset types. They are also more aware of virtual currencies and have, over time, developed cautionary optimism for digital currency regulation. Tencent QQ’s reward program, for example, paid out in Q coins and had more than 221.4 million active users by 2006. Consequently, some of the earliest BTC adopters were Chinese. Bitcoin’s popularity in China also increased with the East Asian country’s rise to the position of the second most powerful economy on earth. China’s 12-th strategic economic plan, released in 2011, was one of many development aspects aimed at the reduction of the poverty rampant in the nation’s rural zones. As a result of the economic success of this plan, China’s emerging middle class burst onto the scene, increasing the country’s domestic consumption from a low of 4% in 2000 to a high of 68% in 2012. The money that was left over after savings were taken care of was channeled into speculative investing. Since this aspect of making money is a big part of the investment culture of the Chinese, the country’s investors took a quick liking to Bitcoin. The Chinese, however, were not purchasing the digital asset for its privacy attributes but rather for its investment appeal. Unlike many Bitcoin enthusiasts in the West who love the digital currency for its P2P features, the Chinese adopted BT for its Gold 2.0 features. Speculating in gold is an investment activity most Chinese are accustomed to. This difference is the reason why, when the Silk Road closed down, the Chinese market for crypto was hardly affected. In the West, however, the closure of the online black-market platform adversely affected Bitcoin prices.
BTC was Gold 2.0 to China
The interest in BTC investment in China rose even further with the loosening of the government’s tight grip on financial markets. At the time, Beijing was in the process of developing diverse financial markets for the new elite to invest in, such as derivatives. A strengthening economy with friendly regulations was just what the Bitcoin investment frenzy required. With the creation of BTC mining hardware in 2013, the participation of the Chinese as miners and investors soared. New 2016 to 2017 crypto regulations, however, brought the Chinese crypto trading market to its knees because they quashed the ability to speculate in Gold 2.0. Despite the death of crypto speculative trading, the Chinese crypto community is still very vibrant despite the stringent regulations around it. This resilience is especially visible in the area of blockchain application. Such innovation is what the Xi Jinping government is promising to support, not decentralized cryptocurrencies that make it difficult for governments to control money as they wish. Since the pro-blockchain October speech, there has been a cascade of activity in the Chinese blockchain scene. The Chinese central bank is, for instance, readying itself to release its Digital Currency Electronic Payment System. The People’s Bank of China intends to replace the use of fiat with the DCEP blockchain-based payments solution. This move would make the country the first major world economy to embrace a native digital currency. With the launch of the digital payment systems, China would find it much easier to extend the influence of its monetary policy to the rest of the world. While Beijing has no regard for “censorship-resistant” and permission-less digital currencies — as they endanger capital controls — it is building its centralized digital currency to supplant Bitcoin. This effort is a true testament to Bitcoin’s significance and the Chinese government’s appreciation that the world’s monetary system is dependent on technological advancements. Unlike the West, China has harnessed the power of internet connectivity without losing its control over freedom of expression. The economic giant is now strategizing ways that it can harness the power of blockchain, albeit minus its decentralized aspects. It could be that the Chinese government’s interest in the blockchain is part of the drive to end the age of the USD. This is an opportunity to move the country past its dependence on US-owned foundational technologies. According to Xi China, through blockchain, will “take the leading position … occupy the commanding heights of innovation, and gain new industrial advantages.” China, however, is determined to make its cryptocurrency more acceptable to the international and domestic markets than Bitcoin has ever been. The second-largest economy has been amassing massive amounts of gold, which analysts say will back its native digital currency. A gold-backed digital currency is acceptable in any part of the world and will significantly enhance Beijing’s de-dollarization policy. It is therefore expected that the county will maintain its leading gold mining and buying positions in 2020, which should add more fuel to the ongoing global gold rally. https://preview.redd.it/nc1l1mlcyq741.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ea7c308c3e2e226d8eced72adabefba70d49a80
Why the debate about blocksize is irrelevent, and the next phase of Bitcoin
This is my first post here, but I'm well known and hated on BTC (I got banned from Bitcoin for calling that Bashco guy a fucking idiot, which he is). Anyways, since this is supposedly a market based Bitcoin sub, I thought maybe there's some people who appreciate cutting all the bullshit politics out of the Bitcoin conversation. To summarize my position, it would be thus:
getting ideologically/emotionally attached to ANY coin is both idiotic and the best way to lose your money. I'm a trader, it's what I do for a living. I'm concerned with one thing only: growing my investment. I'll put my money in the coin that give me th best chance to do that, regardless of what it is. If that coin is BTC, I'll buy BTC. If it's BCH, I'll buy BCH.
LISTEN TO THE MARKET. The people that actually MOVE the market are insiders (CEO's/HNW investors/Venture capitalists of Bitcoin based companies for the most part) have informational advantages over us little guys that we could never hope to match. IT's good to have an idea and hold conviction i that idea, but at the end of the day, if the market proves us wrong, we need to be humble enough to accept that and cut our losses. This is the primary reason why the pro BCH crowd over at BTC is getting their teeth kicked in every day by the markets.
I don't give two shits what Satoshi said, or what the White Paper says. Satoshi was clearly a brilliant coder. To concieve of blockchain and then write it into existence is an impressive feat. And if I ever had a question on the coding of Bitcoin, he'd be the foremost authority on it. That said, he wasn't an expert economist well versed in the fundemntal laws of economics, and I highly doubt he was a behavioral psycologist either. At the end of the day, economic/market based forces (which are fundamentally based on human economic behavioral psychology) are what is going to decide the ultimate future of Bitcoin, and the market frankly doesn't care about Satoshi, or block size, or any of that stuff. "Satoshi" has been built up into an infallible Oracle, and a cult of personality has formed to the point where it crowds out any reasonable analysis. At the end of the day, what the market tells me in 2017 is far more relevent to the future of Bitcoin then what Satoshi told us in 2010. There are so many factors and twists and turns that have happened since then that Satoshi never could have envisioned. So when someone rebuts an argument with "But Satoshi said" I just tune it out, because that argument is not even worth my time.
So, with that out of the way, here's why all this current debate about scalability is pointless. The growth of Bitcoin up until now has been overwhelmingly been powered by crypto-tech geeks (the hobbyists, the coders, the anarcho capitalists, the ideologists etc). For these people, the underlying technology has been what's most important to them. For them, things like block size and scalability are of the utmost importance. These people often think that Bitcoin is going to replace fiat currency, or replace the entire global financial system (it isn't. It's going to become a significant part OF the global financial system, but to think it will replace it is extremely naive and amateurish thinking that massively underestimates the enourmous complexity of the financial system, as well as the huge amount of inertia built into it). These are the people who brought Bitcoin from a weirdo techie project to a major $100 billion market. That's an impressive achievement, but that phase of Bitcoins growth is now coming to an end. We are now entering the next phase, where the primary drivers of growth will not be tech people, but finance people. The Big Boys. The institutional dollars that move all major markets (whether it be stocks, bonds, fx, commodities etc); the hedge funds, the pension funds, the mutual funds, ETF's, high net worth individuals etc. We're still in the very beginning stages of this second phase. Bitcoin is still too risky for most of this money (which is inherently conservative), but the more risk adverse members of this group (mostly the higher risk hedge funds and risk taking HNW individuals) are just now starting to dip their toes in. As the market becomes bigger and more liquid, the volatility will greatly go down and the percieved risk will go down as well, and eventually the more risk averse members of this group will take the plunge. That will take several years probably. The problem for the first group (the tech centric folks) is the finance boys have way, way, way more money then them, and it's THEIR money that's going to guide the development of Bitcoin. Everything follows price eventually, from miners to devs, to investments to infrastructure. And so unfortunately for the cryptoanarchists who thought that Bitcoin was going to bring down the System, it will be the System that determines what Bitcoin will be. Which brings me to my main point: If you want to make money, you have to think about what each group values. Sure, for the tech group, perhaps things like block size or the minuatae of which SegWit is better is the most important factors in which coin you should invest in. But that group is no longer in control. The finance guys are. And so you need to ask yourself, what does THIS money value? I can promise you it isn't block size, or what's in the White Paper. For these guys, the most important thing for them is being able to get their money out if/when they need it. And for that, they need market size/liquidity. Of course, the underlying coin has to actually work (which Bitcoin clearly does). But it's far more important to these guys to be invested in the most liquid market then try to suss out the incremental tech improvements in each coin. That's what the pro BCH crowd doesn't get. They may be ABSOLUTELY RIGHT about their tech argument (that bigger blocks are better) and yet still get crushed, because the thing THEY are valuing is not what the market values. And I believe BTC's current size advantage gives it an insurmountable advantage. I say insurmountable because I believe it's too late for any other coin to catch up, as BTC's first move advantage has given it a positive feedback loop that will continue to power it further and further ahead. It works like this: There's trillions of dolalrs poised to enter cryptos over the next few years. The vast majority of this money values market size/liquidity over all else, and so will naturally gravitate to the biggest/most liquid market (BTC). In turn, the very act of all this money flowing into BTC will make BTC even BIGGER and more liquid then it's competitors. In turn, this makes BTC even MORE attractive to the next round of money coming in, which means it gets bigger and eve more liquid still. Which in turn makes it even MORE attractive.....etc etc.... Think about it. If you have, say, $1 billion to put into crypto (an entirely reasonable sum for the types of ppl we're talking about. Bill Ackman put several billion on an Herbalife short ffs) are you going to put it into the $100 billion BTC market? Or the $5 billion BCH market jsut because you like big blocks? Of COURSE you're not going to put a stake equivalent to 20% of the entire market. The very act of buying would cause price to explode several hundred % only to crash back down when you, as the primary buyer, are finished. And after your hedge fund is fully invested, let's say you take heavy losses on your stock portfolio and you need to get your money out quickly. Try removing $1 billion quickly from a $5-$6 billion market and you're going to crash it. So you've bought in at extreme highs and sold out at extreme lows. This is how newbs trade, not multi billion dollar hedge funds. So many people waste so much time and energy debating the shit that doesn't matter that they totally ignore the factors that do. It'd be like buying Apple shares based on which executives get the best parking spaces, rather then how many iPhones you expect them to sell this year. This dynamic (BTC as the biggest market outperforming all other coins significantly) has been in effect since the Aug 1 fork, and I believe it's for the exact reason I state above. And we should expect this dynamic to be the driving force behind the crypto markets for the next few years going forward.
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